Winners of four of their last five games, the Arizona Diamondbacks (9-7) take on the Miami Marlins (8-7) at loanDepot park on Tuesday night. First pitch is set for for 6:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FanDuel Sports Florida and Dbacks.TV.
The Marlins have surprised in the early going as they enter Tuesday above .500. Can Connor Gillispie and the Marlins slow down Corbin Carroll and the Diamondbacks?
Find my Diamondbacks vs Marlins prediction below.
My Diamondbacks vs Marlins Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs Marlins picks: D-backs Team Total Over 4.5 -120 (Play to -130)
My Diamondbacks vs Marlins best bet is Arizona's Team Total Over 4.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 9 -105o / -115u | -162 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 9 -105o / -115u | +136 |
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Merrill Kelly (ARI) | Stat | RHP Connor Gillispie (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 0-1 |
| -0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 7.20 / 7.50 | ERA /xERA | 3.86 / 3.66 |
| 6.67 / 6.45 | FIP / xFIP | 4.22 / 4.40 |
| 1.60 | WHIP | 1.14 |
| -2.9% | K-BB% | 11.7% |
| 41.5% | GB% | 39.5% |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 97 | Location+ | 95 |
John Feltman's Diamondbacks vs Marlins Preview
Marlins Betting Preview: Bad Spot for Gillispie
The Marlins send Connor Gillispie to the mound on Tuesday evening, and he has been no stranger to contact to begin the 2025 campaign. It's a small sample size thus far, but he does not have elite strikeout stuff.
Looking at Gillispie's minor-league numbers, his strikeout numbers were higher than what he's displaying at the Major League level, but he walked far too many hitters.
His xFIP over the last couple of seasons averaged above 4, which gives me no confidence that he will suddenly figure it out at this level. He's allowing 14% barrel and 42% hard-hit rates.
He has the benefit of a pitcher-friendly home park tonight, but that will not stop the Diamondbacks' offense from putting some runs on the scoreboard.
Gillispie also allows too many fly balls for my liking, so I envision a tough outing from him tonight.
D-backs Betting Preview: Snakes Have Bite
The Snakes are fifth in the MLB in runs scored per game and are batting .269 against right-handed pitching thus far. I love their matchup tonight, and they also benefited from a day off yesterday for travel.
Not only does the Snakes have a great matchup on offense, but Merrill Kelly has not faced any of these Marlins hitters before. It could be a feeling-out process for the Fish on offense tonight, at least through the first time through the order.
I always thought Kelly was overrated, and his metrics support that take.
He has been getting extremely hard thus far and is not missing many bats.
It could be a sign that Kelly is finally regressing, and considering the damage they did over the weekend, I wouldn't take the Marlins lineup too lightly.
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Prediction, Betting Analysis
Given the uncertainty of Kelly's performance, I will avoid backing the Snakes and instead target their team total over. You can grab a slightly juiced over 4.5 runs at BetMGM right now.
There is much to like about their offense, and Gillispie is an actual gas can. I would much rather target their offense than take the whole game over, especially since it is tough to predict the legitimacy of the Marlins' recent success.
Kelly is a proper fade for the remainder of the season, but I feel much more confident that the Snake's offense hangs a crooked number tonight against Gillispie.
Pick: Arizona Team Total Over 4.5 -120 (Play to -130)
