The New York Mets host the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 29, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The Diamondbacks have lost three consecutive series prior to beginning a tough three-game set versus the red-hot Mets. New York is favored to win a series opener that will feature two lefties squaring off, as David Peterson (3.29 ERA, 27 1/3 IP) will face off against Eduardo Rodriguez (4.40 ERA, 28 2/3 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Diamondbacks vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Diamondbacks vs Mets Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs Mets picks: Diamondbacks ML +120 (FanDuel, Play to +110)
My Diamondbacks vs Mets best bet is Diamondbacks moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Mets Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | +115 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -140 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP David Peterson (NYM) | Stat | LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 1-2 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 3.29/4.38 | ERA /xERA | 4.40/2.87 |
| 3.06/2.88 | FIP / xFIP | 2.79/2.84 |
| 1.43 | WHIP | 1.29 |
| 16.0% | K-BB% | 22.0% |
| 55.7% | GB% | 39.2% |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 101 | Location+ | 102 |
Nick Martin’s Diamondbacks vs Mets Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Offense Masking Pitching Woes
It seemed reasonable to believe that the Diamondbacks' pitching staff could be improved this season after a disappointing performance in 2024, but that hasn't been the case early on.
Corbin Burnes has been a disappointment with a 4.40 ERA, Zac Gallen has struggled to a 5.57 ERA and Eduardo Rodriguez and Merrill Kelly have both posted below-average results.
Arizona holds the sixth-adjusted ERA in baseball at 111.
Rodriguez certainly hasn't been the most disappointing arm among the Diamondbacks' pitching staff. Still, he's yet another starter who's underperforming relative to expectations, as the consensus among major projection systems was that he would hold a sub-four ERA.
Rodriguez's underlying numbers do suggest he's pitching at a level close to what was expected. He holds an xERA of 2.86 and a 2.84 xFIP, and his K-BB% of 22 is also considerably improved compared to 2024.
He's stranded only 61% of baserunners, which is tanking a process that looks pretty sound. He's stranded 73.5% of runners in his career, and if he can find positive regression in that key area, he should prove to be a better-than-average starter this season.
Pitch metrics also believe Rodriguez is pitching at a higher level this season compared to last, as he holds a Pitching+ rating of 99 compared to a mark of 94 in 2024.
Led by an incredible start from Corbin Carroll, who appears poised to challenge for the NL MVP, the Diamondbacks' offensive play has been a strength once again. They hold the fourth-best wRC+ rating of 115 and own the best BB/K ratio in baseball.
Arizona ranked fourth in wRC+ in 2024 and scored more runs than any other team, so it's no surprise to see this kind of start offensively.
In 2024, the Diamondbacks finished with a second-ranked wRC+ of 119 versus left-handed pitching. They haven't been as effective against lefties this season, with a wRC+ of just 86, but it seems unlikely they'll continue to offer lesser results against lefties moving forward.
The lineup is quite comparable to that of 2024, and the numbers suggest that their process remains sound.
With a 0.86 BB/K ratio versus left-handed pitching, they lead the league by a wide margin. Also, they hold the second-highest hard-hit rate in baseball versus lefties.
The loss of Christian Walker obviously hurts; however, Josh Naylor actually had a better slugging rate than Walker against left-handed pitchers in 2024.
Ketel Marte's absence has also been one reason for the team's slightly lesser offensive results. However, he's traveling with the team for its six-game road trip. He likely won't return in this series, though.
New York Mets Betting Preview: Peterson Pushing Team Forward
The Mets are enjoying having a healthy Peterson, as his impactful start to the season has been one of the many positive storylines for New York.
Peterson appeared to be an overachiever in 2024, boasting a 2.90 ERA despite a 4.59 xERA and 4.10 xFIP. He's been able to outperform the underlying statistics to some extent once again this season.
Peterson holds an xERA of 4.36 and an xFIP of 2.88. His K-BB% of 16 is an improvement, but he's been hard-hit 52.5% of the time and allowed a WHIP of 1.43. His stuff is grading out worse than it did in 2024, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 91 and a Pitching+ rating of 105.
The Mets have been effective versus left-handed pitching in the initial 29 games of the season, as they hold a wRC+ of 113 and an OPS of .747.
Diamondbacks vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
Considering how dominant the Mets have been recently, it's no surprise to see that 75% of bets on sides in this game have come in on New York, per the Action Network app.
There's a pretty strong case that the Mets are being overvalued in this matchup, though, and this looks like a good spot to buy on a Diamondbacks team that still figures to be quite strong this season.
The Diamondbacks were one of the best teams in the league against left-handed pitchers last season. Considering the talent left in the lineup and their strong process versus lefties this season, it still looks as though they'll be among the league's most productive lineups versus lefties in 2025.
Rodriguez looks like a good pitcher to buy right now, as all of the underlying results suggest he's pitching at a higher level than his ERA suggests.
Peterson, meanwhile, looks to have run with some favorable luck this season to hold an ERA of 3.30, and it's reasonable to feel Peterson may not outperform Rodriguez the rest of the way.
At +120, we look to be getting a great number to back the Diamondbacks to steal a win in the series opener.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML +120 (FanDuel, Play to +110)
Moneyline
As outlined, backing the Diamondbacks to win at +120 is my favorite bet in this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Diamondbacks to cover -1.5 at +185 looks to be worthy of a smaller bet.
Over/Under
A total of 8.5 looks fair in this matchup.
