Editor's note: Dylan Lee will serve as the opener for the Braves in tonight's Game 4. Given that this is still a bullpen game for Atlanta, the betting pick recommendation below does not change.
Astros vs. Braves Odds
| Astros Odds | -107 |
| Braves Odds | -110 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Time | 8:09 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
With the Atlanta Braves up 2-1 in the series, they will turn it over to their bullpen with the recent season-ending injury to Charlie Morton. The Houston Astros will send Zack Greinke to the hill.
Outside of Game 2, Houston has been struggling against Atlanta’s prominent left-handers, which is unlike how they have performed all season. Will that continue in this matchup?
Astros Need Offense to Back Greinke & Co.
Greinke has only thrown 2 1/3 innings this postseason in two different appearances. The Astros will likely have to go to their bullpen early with the 38-year-old not yet stretched out for starting duties.
Being down 2-1 in the series does not provide manager Dusty Baker much flexibility, either. There is a strong chance Phil Maton or Christian Javier is the first guy in after Greinke, as neither threw on Friday.
The Braves did collectively well against right-handed off-speed pitches from August through the end of the season. Greinke often likes to go to his changeup and curveball just as much as his four-seamer. The Braves held a .334 xwOBA on those pitches in that timespan.
On right-handed fastballs between 88 and 91 mph (Greinke’s velocity), they owned a .493 xwOBA, so there is a good chance Greinke is not pitching deep into this game, regardless. Maton held the Braves in check already in two appearances and Javier did the same in his outing, but Greinke is a perfect pitcher for this Braves' offense.
The Astros have been Jekyll & Hyde thus far in the World Series. They only scored in Game 2. They also received some fortunate luck on batted balls in that game. That said, they still had a team 116 wRC+ against right-handers this season, and hey will likely see Jesse Chavez in the opener role.
Also seeing the left-handed trio of A.J. Minter, Tyler Matzek and Will Smith again could surely give them the jolt they need to start some offense. Expect some positive regression for the Houston offense.
Pitching A Huge Question Mark For Braves
Chavez has been incredible in the postseason so far. He has thrown 4 2/3 without allowing a run on only three hits. There is not much you can ask for in a relief arm, but like the situation with Greinke, he will only go for probably an inning. Houston does hit Chavez's main offerings of cutters and sinkers well (.361 xwOBA in the regular season), so he could have a little trouble.
Drew Smyly is the alternate to be concerned about as a Braves-backer. He did not look sharp in his 1 1/3 inning appearance against the Astros. Given how well the Astros hit lefties all season, he is the perfect matchup for their lineup. If skipper Brian Snitker expects Smyly to pick up bulk innings, there may be a quick change of plans because the Astros should score off of him easily.
The Astros have not looked sharp offensively this series. However, they are successful versus left-handed pitching, and if we see Minter, Matzek and Smith again tonight, that will be something to watch.
There could be a chance Joc Pederson enters the lineup today with Jorge Soler playing the outfield on Friday. Both have an OPS over .760 in the playoffs, so they are comparable and Pederson has three homers to Soler’s one.
This lineup has ridden on the backs of Eddie Rosario and Freddie Freeman. It drops off significantly from there, which is why their season numbers are not anything spectacular. They should be able to hit Greinke, but with the uptick in velocity and a different pitching arsenal from Javier and Maton, they will get another look.
Astros-Braves Pick
It's been interesting to see the lefty-dominating Astros struggle so far against the key southpaws in Atlanta's bullpen. But Atlanta will be able to hit Greinke. The Braves were stronger on the season facing righties rather than lefties, so even Javier and Maton could allow a run or two, as well.
Take the first five over 4.5 (-106) and play to 5 (-115). Both offense should score early and both teams have now seen the bullpens in use consistently.
Pick: F5 Over 4.5 (-106), play to 5 (-115)
Author's note: Dylan Lee will serve as the opener for the Braves in tonight's Game 4. Given that this is still a bullpen game for Atlanta, the betting pick recommendation below does not change.
