Editor's note: Dylan Lee will serve as the opener for the Braves in tonight's Game 4. Given that this is still a bullpen game for Atlanta, the betting pick recommendation below does not change.
Astros vs. Braves World Series Game 4 Odds
| Astros Odds | -107 |
| Braves Odds | -110 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Time | 8:09 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Braves' pitching dominated on Friday night en route to a 2-0 victory and 2-1 lead in the World Series. Can Atlanta move one win away from a World Series title tonight?
The pitching is a big question mark, with likely bullpen games on both sides. Given that, our analysts have their eyes on the total.
Here are our two best bets for Saturday's Game 4 of the World Series between the Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros.
Over 8.5 (-115)
Odds via BetMGM
Collin Whitchurch: The over was a huge bust on Friday, as Ian Anderson and the Braves' bullpen completely shut down down Houston's offense in a 2-0 victory. But we're going back to the well tonight with the pitching more in flux than it has been all series.
Injuries to key pitchers in both rotations have made this a de facto bullpen game on both sides. Zack Greinke will start for Houston, and the future Hall of Famer has fallen off to the point where he might not even be on this roster if not for an injury to Lance McCullers Jr.
He's not expected to last very long. Greinke has pitched just twice in the postseason and neither outing was more than 1 1/3 innings. The Astros will likely hope for length, instead, out of Cristian Javier, who has yet to allow a run in a full nine innings of work across four outings so far this postseason.
He threw 27 pitches in Game 2, so I wouldn't expect him to throw 50+ pitches as we saw in outings against both the White Sox and Red Sox, but Javier is the Astros' best weapon out of the bullpen tonight.
The Braves will look to take a 3-1 lead behind some combination of Jesse Chavez, Drew Smyly, and all-hands-on-deck.
While runs were hard to come by on Friday, it's tough to imagine these offenses not getting going against the plethora of average or worse arms set to throw tonight. I like the first five innings over 4.5 a bit, but the full game total 8.5 at -115 or better even more.
First Five Innings Over 4.5 (-106)
Odds via BetRivers
DJ James: Both the Houston Astros and the Atlanta Braves will likely feature plenty of bullpen action in this game. However, neither unit has been a strong suit this season.
The two have pitched well in the playoffs. Jesse Chavez and Drew Smyly will get the early bulk of the work for Atlanta, and Zack Greinke with Christian Javier and Phil Maton after him will pitch for Houston.
Chavez will likely be a tougher matchup for the Astros, but he will at most go one or two innings. Smyly is a perfect matchup for Houston, as he allowed three baserunners and one run to the Astros in an inning of work this World Series already.
The Astros love a soft-tossing left-hander like Smyly. He utilizes his fastball almost 50% of the time, and the Astros hold a .370 xwOBA on the season against lefty fastballs, even if they have not shown it much with the left-heavy Atlanta bullpen thus far.
The Braves will be able to handle Greinke. Against right-handed fastballs between 88 and 91 mph (Greinke’s velocity), they owned a .493 xwOBA this season. They should be able to knock him out of the game early. They might struggle with Javier and Maton, but having seen the two already, it plays into their favor.
Take the first five o4.5 (-106) and play to 5 (-115). Expect to see some fireworks early.
