It's win or go home for the Houston Astros tonight, as the Atlanta Braves have built up a 3-1 lead in the World Series and can clinch their first title since 1995 with a win tonight.
A win by the Astros would send the series back to Houston for Game 6 on Tuesday.
The Astros are starting ace Framber Valdez after he was roughed up in Game 1. The Braves are going with another bullpen game following an injury to Charlie Morton, and rookie Tucker Davidson will be first to step on the mound. But rest assured, it will be all-hands-on-deck on both sides tonight.
Our analysts are all over this matchup, with a pair of moneyline picks on both sides, plus two player props worth targeting.
Here are our best bets for tonight's Game 5 of the World Series.
Astros vs. Braves Odds
| Astros Odds | -115 |
| Braves Odds | -100 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Astros -115
Odds via DraftKings
Collin Whitchurch: A bet for more baseball is never a bad thing.
The Braves keep improbably pulling all the right strings. Game 4 seemed like a perfect night for the Astros. They got more than they ever could've imagined out of Zack Greinke. They tagged Atlanta's opener early. Everything broke their way for seven innings … and then they lost.
Game 5 is set up similarly. The Astros have their ace on the mound. Framber Valdez got beat up in Game 1, but he's a good bounce-back candidate and, regardless, the Astros have the pitching edge here.
What the Braves are going to do is as unpredictable as it was in Game 4. The logical idea is some combination of Jesse Chavez, Tucker Davidson and Drew Smyly in the early innings, and then the suddenly unhittable late-inning bullpen arms the rest of the way.
This can't keep working out for them … can it?
I'm betting on no. And I'm betting on more baseball on Tuesday. Under normal circumstances, given the pitching mismatch, the Astros would be much heavier favorites than -115, so I'll bet them there and to -120.
Tucker Davidson Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160)
Odds via DraftKings
Tanner McGrath: This is a rather contrarian play. But if you give me a rookie up against the most disciplined lineup in baseball and I’ll fade him every single time.
Davidson is a very intriguing young pitcher. The 25-year-old was Atlanta’s 19th-round pick in 2016 but has since become one of their top 10 prospects. He’s 6-foot-2, 215 pounds, and has a wicked north-to-south slider.
He’s started to come into his own this year, too, posting a 1.17 ERA and a 2.74 xFIP while striking out almost 11 batters per nine in four Triple-A starts.
Plus, he made some decent MLB starts this season as well. Outside of a 2 2/3 innings, five-run explosion from Boston, Davidson pitched 17 2/3 innings of three-run baseball against the Mets, Nationals and Phillies.
But those were the Mets, Nationals and Phillies, and he hasn’t faced an MLB lineup since June 18. The Astros’ bat-to-ball skills are unlike anything this kid has ever faced, and while I hope he pitches well, notching four strikeouts is a very tough task.
Plus, he’ll have a quick hook in this potential clincher for Atlanta. Our Action Labs Player props tool projects value on the under in this spot, and I’ll happily make that play.
Adam Duvall Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Odds via FanDuel
Sean Zerillo: Atlanta ranked first after the trade deadline against curveballs and changeups, and I gave out three players — Adam Duvall, Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley — who I thought might have success against Framber Valdez’s secondary stuff in Game 1.
Duvall (+18 run value) was twice as good against curveballs this season as any hitter in baseball, and his 2021 splits (64 wRC+ against lefties) aren’t representative of his career norms.
He cashed for us in Game 1 by homering off of a hanging changeup (-1 this season), and I would be happy to bet him again.
Albies (career 94 wRC+ vs. RHP; 146 vs. LHP; average or better against sinkers, changeups and curveballs) is noticeably better as a right-handed hitter, and he would be my second prop option.
Riley (+8 run value vs. curveballs and +8 vs. changeups) picked up a couple of hits on Saturday, but he hasn’t seen the ball particularly well of late (10 K, 0 BB in the last five games), and I’d be much more interested in betting Albies or Duvall.
Braves +100
Odds via FanDuel
Kenny Ducey: The thought of taking the Braves at nearly a pick ‘em against a left-hander was a very scary thought about two or three months ago, but much has changed for Atlanta.
The addition of Jorge Soler and Adam Duvall, along with the return of the lefty-mashing Travis d’Arnaud, make this team a formidable one against lefties. It doesn’t hurt that Ozzie Albies already had a strong foundation within this split and that Eddie Rosario became a reverse-splits guy in a Braves uniform.
So, it was no surprise to me that Framber Valdez struggled early in this series. With Houston on the brink of elimination, it will throw Valdez again here and hope for the best.
Atlanta not only has a strengthened approach against lefties, it also had the second-lowest ground ball rate in baseball this season. Valdez, of course, relies on groundballs to get outs, which lets him get away with his 44.4% hard-hit rate. Valdez has also struggled with walks again this year and this postseason, and Atlanta has proven to be a picky bunch at the plate, drawing four off of Luis Garcia.
I think Valdez is in a terrible spot, and this Astros bullpen is simply gassed at this point. A group which was poor all season and never supposed to be the backbone of the team has now worked 69 ⅓ innings. We’re beginning to see the wheels come off.
Atlanta’s bullpen should be fresh here, thanks to the 4 ⅔ innings Kyle Wright was able to give the Braves in Game 4. While they did use Will Smith and Tyler Matzek, A.J. Minter will be ready to roll and Max Fried could even be used in a relief role.
I think there’s far too much trouble here for Houston’s staff to back this Astros team.
