Astros vs. Diamondbacks Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 9.5 -104o / -118u | +110 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 9.5 -104o / -118u | -130 |
The Houston Astros and Arizona Diamondbacks will kick off a three-game series with massive playoff implications on Friday at Chase Field.
Arizona can clinch its berth to the postseason with a win in this matchup, and will have its ace on the mound in Zac Gallen (3.49 ERA, 203 2/3 IP).
A series win for Houston would mean a return to the postseason. J.P. France (3.83 ERA, 136 1/3 IP) will pitch tonight.
Houston Astros
Despite somewhat of a disappointing record down the stretch, Houston has scored 6.41 runs per game over its last 30 matchups. The Astros own a league-leading 141 wRC+ in that span, and have struck out only 16.4% of the time. Their BB/K ratio of 0.55 is also top of the league in that span.
Michael Brantley returned with a four-hit performance Wednesday in Seattle, and therefore the Astros should be able to field their top lineup as needed in this spot.
Houston's disciplined approach at the plate will be an important element to managing some offense off of one of the NL's best pitchers in Gallen. Gallen has been hard-hit 53% of the time on pitches in the strike zone this season, a weakness that has been counteracted by a strong chase rate.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Gallen enters this matchup in a slightly less dominant stretch of results. Since the All-Star break he has pitched to an ERA of 4.11 in 85 1/3 innings, with a WHIP of 1.21. In five September starts, Gallen owns an ERA of 4.45 and a WHIP of 1.21 with an xFIP of 3.55 and K/9 of 9.20.
He has pitched to an xERA of 4.16 this season and owns a Stuff+ rating of 107, and a Location+ mark of 105.
Gallen's strength when ahead in the count has been a huge key to his success over the last two seasons, as he has worked off of the plate quite effectively. Batters are hitting just .132 with two-strikes, and .141 when behind in the count.
The Diamondbacks' bullpen owns a 17th-ranked 4.26 ERA this season, but has dominated to a 2.26 ERA over the last 30 days. However that mark comes with an xFIP of 4.44. Bryce Jarvis and Kyle Nelson will likely be unavailable in this matchup.
Astros vs. Diamondbacks
Betting Pick & Prediction
Houston's offense remains in elite form entering this series having put up 15 runs off an excellent Mariners staff. By no means is a matchup against Gallen easy, but it's clear that the Astros' lineup can win out in these tough matchups.
Arizona's bullpen also has a number of regression candidates, even if part of the overachievement for each comes from the D'backs' spectacular defensive play.
Pair that with hitter-friendly conditions at Chase Field, and I think the Astros come through with five or more runs often enough to hold value with a bet on their team total to go over 4.5.
