The Houston Astros have taken care of business in the first two games of their series against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Astros scuffled a bit over the last week in Cincinnati, but they are back on track at home in Houston. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are in the thick of a tight, the National League wild-card race, making Sunday night's game extremely important for them to stop the bleeding.
It will be Justin Verlander on the mound for the Astros, and Ryne Nelson will oppose him. For tonight's Sunday Night Baseball SGP, I compiled a three-leg parlay that pays out +622.
Continue below for my Astros vs Diamondbacks parlay picks for Sunday Night Baseball on September 8.
Astros vs Diamondbacks Parlay Picks for Sunday Night Baseball (September 8)
- Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125)
- Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
- Diamondbacks Moneyline (+120)
Parlay Odds: +622 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Astros-Diamondbacks Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 8 -115o / -105u | +115 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8 -115o / -105u | -135 |
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125)
Yordan Alvarez has been on a tear over the last couple of days, and tonight draws a terrific matchup against Ryne Nelson. Nelson has allowed a lower batting average to left-handers than right-handers, but he has allowed more HRs.
Alvarez has five hits in the first two games of the series, and we all know he's capable of heating up in a hurry. He's been hands-down one of the best hitters in baseball in 2024 and can be categorized as elite in many offensive metrics.
Alvarez ranks above the 95th percentile in the following categories:
-xwOBA
-xBA
-xSLG
-Exit Velo
-Barrel%
These do not include the metrics that show that he's above the 80th percentile. Just know that Alvarez is a threat at the plate anytime he steps up.
Nelson features a fastball, cutter, and occasional changeup arsenal. Alvarez demolishes changeups and cutters, with over a .620 xSLG to both pitches. His xBA against all three of those pitches is above .291. So, there's no reason to believe he won't take advantage against Nelson.
I predict Alvarez will stay hot and garner at least one extra-base hit tonight.
Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
Ketel Marte is 0-for-7 over the last couple of days, but he is bound to bounce back. Marte is having an outstanding 2024 season, and if it weren't for his recent injury, he would be up there in the NL MVP race.
Like Alvarez, Marte is one of the best hitters in baseball in 2024, and all his metrics back it up. He ranks above the 90th percentile in many metrics, including xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, and xwOBA. He is only batting .246 against righties, but I still believe he will come through tonight.
Given his age and velocity decline, Verlander will be a much different pitcher in 2024. Thanks to limiting hard contact and walks, he is still effective, but he is not generating nearly as many whiffs or chases as he's accustomed to. Marte is far too good of a hitter to stay cold for long, so he's a great bet to turn it around tonight. He should rack up one extra-base hit or more here.
Diamondbacks ML (+120)
The Snakes need a win tonight, and the optics could look better based on the pitching matchup. Nelson is a mediocre pitcher who does not blow you away with his stuff against an excellent offense by the Astros. But the key to tonight's matchup is attacking Justin Verlander. Verlander limits hard contact at an elite rate, but he has allowed much more solid contact over the last several years.
His walk rate has also increased, so combining the rise of contact and walk rates correlates to more opportunities for the opposition to take advantage. The Snakes' batting average against righties is lower, but their OPS is similar to righties.
It's also interesting that the market has a ton of money pouring in on Houston, but the line has crept toward Arizona. Something doesn't seem right here, as I suspect a lot of sharp money will come in on them later. The bullpen is good enough to hold steady after Nelson departs; both offenses are equal in my eyes. I'll back the Snakes tonight, hoping they get back on track.
Astros-Diamondbacks Parlay Picks
- Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125)
- Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
- Diamondbacks Moneyline (+120)
Parlay Odds: +622 (FanDuel)
