Astros vs. Diamondbacks Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-106 | 9 -108 / -112 | -1.5 +155 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 9 -108 / -112 | +1.5 -188 |
Justin Verlander and Merrill Kelly face off Saturday as the Diamondbacks host the Astros in the final weekend of the regular season.
Honestly, Verlander and Kelly are pretty comparable. However, Houston likely holds an edge over the D'backs’ bullpen and lineup, so backing Houston on the moneyline is Saturday's best bet.
Houston Astros
Verlander has been stellar in the second half with a 1.85 ERA over 24 1/3 innings. On the season, he only has a 21.4% strikeout rate and is walking just 6.5% of batters. His Barrel Rate is 8.2% and he also has a 90 mph Average Exit Velocity and a 40.8% Hard-Hit Rate.
Even though there's been an increase in his permitted hard contact, Verlander has held some strong offenses (Baltimore, Texas and Seattle) to three or fewer runs, while going five-plus innings.
Look for that to be the case here against a top-heavy Arizona lineup.
Justin Verlander's 7th and 8th Ks. pic.twitter.com/tNpilP5MLa
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 26, 2023
The Astros have hit righties hard in September. They have a 142 wRC+ and a .884 OPS with a 17.9% strikeout rate and a 8% walk rate. In addition, they have eight hitters with a xwOBA above .310 this month off of righties (minimum 10 plate appearances). That means nearly everyone in the Astros order can piece together a solid plate appearance.
The Astros bullpen has a 4.17 xFIP with a 25.1% strikeout rate and a 8.3% walk rate this month. They only have four relievers with an xFIP below 4.00, but Verlander typically goes six-plus innings, which should negate the impact of Houston's weakness in middle relief.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Kelly is a top-of-the-rotation starter for a reason. He's defied his expected statistics this season with a 4.10 xERA against a 3.38 ERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 89.6 mph, his Barrel Rate is 7.7% and his Hard-Hit Rate is 41.3%. He also keeps the ball on the ground 46% of the time.
His first-half ERA was 3.22 and his second-half ERA is 3.57, so he's been consistent throughout the year. That said, the Astros can hammer the ball, so Kelly may be in for a rough start.
The Diamondbacks have good hitters at the top, but weaker-than-average hitters at the bottom of the order. That's led to an 86 wRC+ and a .682 OPS. Arizona's walk rate is 9% and paired with a 21.9% strikeout rate. Additionally, the D'backs have five hitters with 10+ plate appearances and a .320+ xwOBA.
Arizona's bullpen has a 4.42 xFIP, a 21.6% strikeout rate and a 8.2% walk rate.
Astros vs. Diamondbacks
Betting Pick & Prediction
Houston has a better lineup and doesn't strike out as much as Arizona. The Astros are solid throughout the lineup and will have a future Hall of Famer on the mound. With that being the case, they should win this game. Bet the Astros moneyline to -140.
