The Dodgers hand the ball to right-hander Gavin Stone, while left-hander Framber Valdez takes the mound for the Astros this Friday at Minute Maid Park.
Let's take a look at a few elements in this game and cook up a same-game parlay for Astros vs Dodgers on Friday, July 26.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Astros vs Dodgers MLB Parlay: Friday SGP Picks (July 26)
- Framber Valdez Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115)
- Gavin Stone Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)
- Over 8.5 (+100)
Parlay Odds: +550 (DraftKings)
Valdez has put together a turbulent campaign thus far, posting a 3.63 ERA and 1.28 WHIP through 17 starts. His underlying metrics suggest that we will see more of those "bad" outings over the remainder of the year.
The southpaw possesses a 3.97 xERA and ranks in the 30th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. We are going to capitalize on this expected regression by fading Valdez in the prop market as he ranks in the 35th percentile in both chase rate and strikeout rate.
You can currently find his strikeout prop at 5.5, a total that he has failed to surpass in 11 of his 17 starts this season. These woes are likely to continue against Los Angeles, a team that ranks fourth in strikeout rate when facing left-handed pitching.
However, Stone is unlikely to perform any better. Stone boasts a strong 3.19 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, but like Valdez, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming.
The right-hander sports a 3.78 xERA and .260 xBA. Also like Valdez, Stone's struggles sometime arise in the strikeout department as he ranks in the 38th percentile in whiff rate and 23rd percentile in strikeout rate.
While 4.5 is a relatively low total for a strikeout prop, Stone has failed to surpass this number in each of his past three starts. He should stay under this total once again on Friday, given that the Astros rank fourth in strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitching.
If we are fading both starting pitchers simultaneously, then a highly correlated outcome would be for the over to hit. Not only are both starters due for regression, but both bullpens also rank in the bottom half of the league in FIP.
So, can the offenses do their part? I would wager so, given that both teams rank in the top 10 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.
The weather should also help us out as the forecast calls for a humid night with wind blowing out to left-center. Finally, there have nine or more total runs scored in four of Los Angeles' past six games and in three of Houston's past four.
