Astros vs. Dodgers Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+152 | 9 +100 / -122 | +1.5 -128 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-180 | 9 +100 / -122 | +1.5 +106 |
The Los Angeles Dodgers will send Bobby Miller to the mound on Saturday looking to make it four consecutive wins in a matchup versus Ronel Blanco and the Houston Astros.
Blanco has pitched to a 4.66 ERA in 29 inning this season, and is a +152 underdog versus Bobby Miller, who owns a 2.83 ERA in 28 2/3 innings.
Here's a look at the Astros vs Dodgers preview, including betting predictions for Saturday's matchup.
Houston Astros
It would be safe to say that Blanco's results in a starting role have been middling at best. In three outings as a starter, he has pitched to a WHIP of 1.66 with an ERA of 4.76.
Blanco's Stuff+ rating comes in below average at 97, and his Location+ also rates below average at 96. Batters have hammered his fastball to the tune of a .711 xSLG rate this season, which leaves a lot of reliance upon a slider that does not rate overly well to create outs. All in all, it is a profile that is not well suited to go through an order three times.
He has pitched to an xERA of 5.84 across 29 innings this season, with roughly half of those innings coming out of the pen. He owns an xFIP of 5.24.
Across both seasons of Blanco's young MLB career right-handed batters have hit to significantly better splits than lefties. In 2023 righties own a .338 BA and .544 SLG rate across 16 innings.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles has been in solid offensive form over the last 30 days, with a wRC + of 106 and a woba of .326. They are a more productive team as a whole versus left-handed pitching than right-handers, but have hit Blanco's arsenal of pitches well.
The Dodgers own a 20.2 wFB pitch value, and a 5.2 mark against sliders. Those pitches are essentially all that they will see out of Blanco.
J.D. Martinez has slugged .612 versus right-handed pitching this season, in a sample of 179 PA's. While his K% is up this season, his hard-hit rate is up to 53.5% and his xSLG rate is in the 95th percentile at .591.
Astros vs. Dodgers Betting Pick
Blanco should continue to be a well below average option when asked to go more than a handful of innings. There are a number of batters at the top of the Dodgers order who matchup well against Blanco, which will hopefully help to setup my favorite two props with J.D. Martinez.
Martinez is priced at +120 to record over 1.5 total bases and that is a strong look. He will be fairly boom-or-bust versus Blanco, which is a good thing at +120. Pending final lineup I believe backing an RBI at +120 sets up very well.
