Astros vs Dodgers Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+105 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -175 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -125 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +150 |
The new MLB schedule gives us many more interleague matchups, and we have a rematch of the 2017 World Series this weekend.
The Dodgers are exacting their revenge, winning the series by taking the first and second games in one-run nailbiters. Saturday night's contest saw an Alex Bregman grand slam in the fifth before the Dodgers nabbed five runs in the seventh and eighth for the victory.
Expect more exciting baseball on Sunday night between the Astros and Dodgers.
Houston Astros
The Astros lineup has finally shown signs of life, posting a top-10 wRC+ in June.
Surprisingly, they've done it without Yordan Alvarez in the lineup. But the return of Jose Altuve (.775 OPS since coming off the IL in late May) and the relative rejuvenation of Jose Abreu (.757 OPS in June after a .535 OPS in April and May) has vastly improved their run production.
Before, the Astros were getting nothing on offense from the right side of the infield. Now, they're getting slightly above-average offense, which has made a world of difference.
The 'Stros have Hunter Brown up in the rotation, and he's been one of my favorite young pitchers to watch. Among qualified pitchers, he pairs a top-20 CSW rate (27%) with a top-30 ground-ball rate (58%) — two of my favorite things to see when backing a pitcher.
Brown is coming off a brutal start against the Mets in which he got tagged for six earned, including two homers off his fastball. I'm hoping that's nothing but an aberration.
Los Angeles Dodgers
I thought the Dodgers would see major regression in their lineup following major offseason turnover, but this is once again a top-five lineup. That happens when you pair surprising production from JD Martinez and James Outman with Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts, who are probably the two best hitters at their position, including whatever position Betts is playing that night.
The Dodgers have slowed down over the past month, posting a lackluster 94 wRC+ in June. They also have the fifth-worst BABIP during the stretch (.271), so positive regression is likely coming.
Los Angeles will start Tony Gonsolin, who's the biggest overperformer in baseball. He pairs a mid-2.00s ERA with an xERA that has approached 4.00 since the beginning of last season, and his xFIP is a tad higher at 4.06.
Gonsolin will always overperform, but you have to keep fading him.
Astros vs Dodgers Betting Pick
The Action Network App's PRO model projects this total closer to 9, giving us some nice value on the over. Smart and sharp money has been hitting that side since it opened, so you can trust you'll be on the pro side.
As mentioned, Gonsolin is a fade candidate. Brown is less so, but his most recent start against the Mets worries me, and I'm willing to bet on that.
These offenses should produce runs no matter what.
You cannot trust the Dodgers' bullpen in its current form, and the Astros used two of their higher-leverage arms in Saturday's game. So, run prevention in the later innings should be a problem for both sides.
All in all, expect a high-scoring, enticing affair on Sunday Night Baseball. Have fun betting on it.
Pick: Over 8 (-118) |
