The Mariners once lead the American League West by a healthy margin. Now? The Astros tied the Mariners for first place in the division, and can steal the lead with a win on Saturday. With such large stakes on the line, it’s only fitting we take a swing and try to connect on a Same-Game Parlay.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Astros vs Mariners MLB Parlay: Saturday SGP Picks (July 20)
- Mariners Moneyline (-118)
- Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 total bases (+130)
- Framber Valdez Over 2.5 walks (+110)
Parlay Odds: +550 (DraftKings)
The first game back from the All-Star break brought yet another uninspiring offensive showing from the Seattle Mariners, who failed to muster a single run on Thursday. Regardless, the Mariners have a favorable matchup against Framber Valdez.
It’s been a very up-and-down year for Valdez, who turned in his best start of 2024, limiting the Marlins to one run in seven innings, while adding 10 strikeouts. However, that’s the Marlins — and I’m not sure holding the worst team in baseball to just one run is all that impressive, but it’s a positive building block for Valdez.
The Mariners can attack Valdez by… not attacking at all. If you’re patient enough, Valdez is prone to the base on balls. He ranks in the 51st percentile in BB% and walks 2.93 batters per nine. Pairing Valdez’s propensity for walks with the Mariners dazzling 8.8% walk rate bodes well for the Mariners offense.
There’s no sugarcoating the Mariners offensive woes in 2024. They rank 21st in MLB in wRC+ (95) and strike out more than 2.5% more than any other major league team (28.8%.) The offense is far more talented than the numbers indicate, though.
Any possible resurgence begins with the top of the order hitting — J.P. Crawford, Josh Rojas and the franchise center piece, Julio Rodriguez. It’s been a total disaster of late for Rojas and Crawford, but Rodriguez is on fire (more on him later.)
Even with that, I’m banking on the Mariners figuring things out for Saturday.
Plus, George Kirby is one of the true elite pitchers in baseball. The Mariners home grown ace owns a career-low 3.29 ERA with a spectacular 2.81 FIP. I’ll layout Kirby for you — picture Greg Maddux control (2.2% BB rate, 99th percentile), but with a four seam fastball ranging from 95-99, and a knuckle curve to finish the at bat. Not only does Kirby not walk batters, he allows just 0.84 HR/9. Kirby’s breakout season will continue if his home runs and walk numbers remain at career best numbers.
If I’m betting on the Mariners to win, I’m also betting on a Mariners player to hit because someone needs to hit eventually. The most likely candidate for an extra base knock or multi-hits is Julio Rodriguez — who I’m giving the nickname “Second Half Julio.”
Last year, Rodriguez looked lost for the first 75 or so games of the year, and then caught fire as the Mariners pursued a playoff berth.
Now, the Mariners are in the drivers seat for a playoff spot, so the stress isn’t as extreme on Julio — but he’s hitting again. In his past seven games, Rodriguez is batting .520 (13-25) with two homers and a .840 SLG percentage. The time to buy low on Julio’s total base props will slowly start ticking away if this hot streak gets him in gear.
I’m really putting all my eggs in the “Valdez will walk plenty of batters basket.” It’s an integral piece of my Mariners ML breakdown, and I’ll add Valdez over 2.5 walks to round out the SGP. I can’t see the Mariners winning if Valdez isn’t walking batters, so the two plays go hand-in-hand.
Plus, Valdez walked over 2.5 batters in nine of 16 starts this year. It’s more likely than not that Valdez allows multiple free passes, and his background against the Mariners shows it, too.
In Valdez’s two prior outings versus the Mariners, he walked three batters and one batter. The common denominator in the two outings? Valdez surrendered 3+ runs in each and lost both games.
