Astros vs Mariners Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 7 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -225 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 7 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +185 |
The second half of the season will kick off in a big way on Friday with two division rivals gunning for the top spot in the American League West when the Astros begin a three-game set in Seattle.
Hunter Brown surely didn't want the first half of the season to end, and will be hoping to carry his positive momentum into late July. The young righty found his form with a 1.16 ERA in June before sandwiching two great outings around a rare poor start this month to head into the All-Star Break on a high note.
Luis Castillo will oppose him, and while he's had a rather unassuming beginning to the year he did produce two stellar performances heading into the break to create some optimism about this one.
Can the Astros draw level in the division and create some intrigue this weekend? Let's get to my over/under prediction for Astros vs. Mariners on Friday, July 19.
Houston Astros
Brown had a forgettable start to his season, recording an 11.84 ERA in April before settling in with a 3.42 ERA the following month. He's continued to get better as the season has progressed, aside from allowing seven earned versus the Twins a couple of weeks ago, picking things up in the strikeout department and significantly cutting back on walks.
Brown's Expected Batting Average continues to rest in an excellent place, standing at .228 on the year, and he'd kept a streak of eight straight starts at .236 or lower prior to heading backwards in his last two outings heading into the break. He's actually begun pitching to fewer ground balls as the year has gone on, too, something that should aid him at T-Mobile Park which is an arduous yard for home-run hitters.
In terms of the offense here, the Astros certainly welcomed the rest. They're down in 20th in wRC+ for the month of July, sporting a solid 20.7% strikeout rate but lacking walks and slugging with an Isolated Power (ISO) of .144. It's not for lack of effort, either, considering they're fifth in fly-ball rate during this time in a reversal of what we've seen for the season.
Seattle Mariners
Castillo has been working with slightly worse than his best stuff in 2024, losing around 1 mph on his four-seam fastball and allowing more expected hits and punching out fewer hitters as a result. His xBA is up 14 points from last year at .244 and he's striking out just 24.2% of batters after sitting over 27% for two years running.
The righty's still pitching above the league average in fly balls by around three points, something most Mariners pitchers aim to do as they play to strengths of their home park, and he's actually produced a ton of pop-ups for a second straight year — something that's an unusual skill to hone in but one which is becoming harder and harder to ignore as the months go on.
The good news here for Castillo is that his the xBA on his four-seamer has come down from over .200 in the first two months of the year to .187 in June and .172 in July and the velocity has begun to creep back up, though it's still not close to where it was a year ago. His strikeout touch still seems to be deserting him, too, despite a slight uptick in July — and it's important to consider the two positive outings he's had this month have come against the Blue Jays and Angels.
At the dish, you know the drill by now with this Mariners offense. It's abysmal, orienting itself towards fly balls in a park which simply doesn't reward them. They've mustered up just a 95 wRC+ this year, and while they've begun to take some more walks they're still striking out at a horrid 28.1% clip and hitting .219. They've only struck out at a higher rate this month, hitting just .223.
Astros vs. Mariners Pick & Prediction
It's very difficult to sound sharp backing the under in Seattle, given it seems just about every game here features few runs. It's hit in 70% of these games with an average cover margin of 1.1 runs and it would appear we're tracking for yet another pitcher's duel here.
The Astros' infatuation with putting the ball in the air lately and swinging at a ton of pitches should work against them here, as well as their 26th-place ranking in run value per 100 fastballs. It's a pitch they've had success against for the year, but the recent trends would suggest they can't take advantage of Castillo's shortcomings.
Brown, meanwhile, has been generating plenty more swings and misses over the last few months as the strikeout numbers begin to climb, and with more fly balls and fewer expected hits coming his way as the season progresses he should be well-suited to keep a poor Mariners offense down.
It brings me no joy to say this, but bet on a low-scoring game once again in Seattle — it's been a winning formula all year and both pitchers are showing few signs of bucking that trend.
