Astros vs. Marlins Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-116 | 7.5 -120 / -102 | -1.5 +150 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-102 | 7.5 -120 / -102 | +1.5 -182 |
The third and final game of this interleague series gets underway Wednesday evening as the NL East's Miami Marlins host the AL West's Houston Astros.
After splitting the first two games, will the Marlins end the series on a high note, or can the Astros take care of business as road favorites?
Here's a look at the odds and my Astros vs. Marlins betting pick and prediction.
Houston Astros
It has been yet another strong campaign for the defending champions, who sit just a few games out of first place in the AL West. The offense has carried the Astros as they rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, SLG, OPS and home runs.
With that said, this lineup's biggest strength may be its ability to avoid strikeouts. When facing left-handed pitching this season, Houston ranks first in the league in K%.
Looking at Wednesday's projected starting lineup, five of the nine hitters possess a K% south of 23% this year.
Perhaps this lineup can avoid the strikeout once again against left-hander Jesus Luzardo.
Miami Marlins
It hasn't been a terrible season for Luzardo, but it hasn't been wildly successful either. Through 24 starts, the left-hander possesses a 3.91 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP.
Those surface-level stats aren't anything special and his underlying metrics aren't great either. Luzardo ranks in the 32nd percentile or lower in average exit velocity, Hard-Hit%, xSLG and Barrel%.
Luzardo's strikeout metrics are well-above average, which is why we are catching this prop as high as 6.5 at DraftKings.
With that said, can we trust him to stay in this game long enough to rack up seven strikeouts?
He has failed to record more than 16 outs in each of his past three starts and is 0-2 record with a 10.13 ERA and a 2.10 WHIP over that stretch. He also had three or fewer strikeouts in two of those outings.
Astros vs. Marlins
Betting Pick & Prediction
I have complete faith in Luzardo's strikeout ability, but I don't trust him to stay in this game long enough to generate seven strikeouts.
Not only does he enter this contest in terrible form, but his track record against the Astros isn't great.
Through three career starts against Houston, Luzardo is 0-1 with a 6.06 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. He has averaged less than six strikeouts per game over that stretch.
