Astros vs Mets Friday Odds & Moneyline Prediction
Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images. Pictured: J.D. Martinez.
Astros vs Mets Friday Odds & Moneyline Prediction
| Houston Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
-108 | 8 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +150 |
| New York Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
-112 | 8 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -180 |
The Mets appeared to be left for dead earlier in the season, but the New York Fightin’ Grimaces have gone 11-2 since the beloved McDonald’s mascot graced Citi Field. Baseball’s hottest team is now just one spot out of NL wild-card position.
One of the most consistent teams over the last decade, the Astros have had a disappointing start to the year. They are 40-40 and 4 1/2 games back in the AL West and 3 1/2 back of the third AL wild-card spot entering Friday. Like the Mets, Houston has played much better of late and enters Friday on a seven-game winning streak.
The latest Astros vs Mets odds for Friday have the Mets as -112 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8 (-115o/-105u). Check out my MLB betting preview below for my Astros vs Mets moneyline prediction.
At the age of 30, Ronel Blanco is having a breakout season for Houston. Despite entering the season with just seven career starts under his belt, Blanco has a 2.34 ERA through 14 starts. He has held opponents to two runs or fewer in 11 outings.
Blanco has an xERA of 3.57, which is more than a full run higher than his ERA — however, that still ranks in the top third of the league.
There is nothing Blanco does at an elite level. He is barely above average in strikeout rate, he doesn’t generate ground balls and he really struggles with command at times. He does a good job of limiting hard contact, but it’s not overly elite.
Yet, he ranks fifth in the American League in ERA and has allowed the lowest opponent batting average in the AL. Blanco has an outstanding slider that continues to be his best pitch, and he is also throwing his changeup a lot more than in the past, to great success.
Houston’s bats got off to an uncharacteristically slow start but have really picked it up of late. The Astros rank top 10 in wOBA and wRC+, and Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are crushing the ball to make up for the absence of Kyle Tucker.
Jose Quintana might have had a brief bounce back in 2022, but he has been pretty washed for a while now. He has made 15 starts this season and holds a 4.58 ERA, and his expected metrics are even worse.
Quintana has a 5.13 xERA and ranks in the bottom 20% of the league in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate. While he has never been a big strikeout guy, Quintana has the lowest K/9 rate since his rookie season (2012).
His sinker is allowing a hard-hit rate above 50% while his four-seamer has been knocked around to a .406 wOBA. He is throwing his sinker more than he ever has before, but it is not working.
New York’s offense has been red hot recently. The Mets have been crushing the ball to a .409 wOBA and 172 wRC+ over the last two weeks, the best in the league by a wide margin.
When you look up and down this lineup, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, J.D. Martinez and Francisco Alvarez are all locked in at the plate right now.
Astros vs. Mets
Betting Pick & Prediction
Even if you assume that Blanco will eventually regress toward his 3.57 xERA and his BABIP will play closer to league average, he still has a significant edge over Quintana and his 5.13 xERA.
As hot as the Mets are at the plate right now, Houston has consistently been a top-10 offense and New York’s current form likely makes these lineups a wash at best. The Mets will also be in their worse split against a right-handed pitcher, and the Astros have historically hit lefties at one of the best clips in the league.
Houston has gone 11-3 in Blanco’s starts this season and he is 5-0 with a 1.98 ERA on the road. His secondary pitches have been terrific and the Mets offense is not going to stay this locked in forever.
As terrifying as it is to bet against Grimace and the Mets right now, I’ll side with Houston as a short road favorite.
Pick: Astros Moneyline (-115 | Bet to -120)
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