Astros vs. Nationals Odds
| Astros Odds | -200 |
| Nationals Odds | +165 |
| Over/Under | 8 |
| Time | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Washington Nationals broke the Houston Astros' 11-game winning streak Saturday night as Nelson Cruz and pretty much their whole bullpen led them to a 13-6 victory. Despite the loss, the Astros offense stayed hot by putting up six runs.
Justin Verlander looks to continue his Comeback Player of the Year campaign in the series rubber match as he takes on Patrick Corbin who still hasn't returned to his strong form from 2019.
Will the Astros Bounce Back with Verlander?
The Houston Astros are still the Astros, and offensively, they did not appear to be missing a beat in the absence of Jose Altuve and Jeremy Peña. However, the Astros are 6-8 when Altuve doesn't play and 16-4 when he does.
Verlander has been an incredible story this season as he has posted ridiculous road numbers. He's sporting a 0.64 ERA and a 2.24 FIP over 28 innings on the road this season. Additionally, he's facing the second-worst offense in MLB at home against right-handed pitchers in team wRC+ over the past three weeks.
The Astros bullpen has also been lights out with the exception of Saturday. Prior to last night, they had a 0.74 ERA over the past three weeks.
Corbin and the Nationals Looking for the Series Win
The Nationals scored a home season-high 13 runs in Saturday night's win and look to carry that momentum into Sunday. Unfortunately, their offense has struggled at home so far this season, especially against right-handed pitching. They are last in wRC+ against right-handed pitching at home and 23rd in runs scored at home.
Corbin takes the mound for the Nationals, and it's been tough sledding for him over the past three…years. He has also struggled at home this season to the tune of a 5.94 ERA, but his 3.73 FIP at home suggests he may be experiencing some bad luck.
The Nats bullpen has also been relatively shaky this season, and over the past two weeks, they are 18th in ERA but 13th in FIP. They are performing below league average but should be slightly better than league average, but this doesn't mean much.
They are tasked with trying to shut down an offense that has been red-hot over the past two weeks, and it just doesn't seem likely.
Astros-Nationals Pick
If both Altuve and Peña are out again for the Astros, that could make their runline a little bit less desirable. However it's hard to back the Nationals at all considering the pitching matchup and their struggles at home offensively.
Even with two big bats missing from the lineup, this might have been a rest day for some of the regulars anyway, and the Astros and Nationals both seem to be on opposing sides of averages playing out. Stick with the Astros runline at -1.5 on DraftKings (-110) here because it's the best value, and the data is pointing in that direction.
Pick: Astros -1.5 -110 (DraftKings)
