Check out my two favorite player props for Game 4 of the World Series, courtesy of our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Cristian Javier Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Odds via DraftKings
Houston's roster is loaded with talented pitchers. The top of the rotation to the back of the bullpen is stacked.
Cristian Javier is no different.
Javier tossed almost 150 innings this season with an xERA under 2.50. He's still walking too many batters, but is superb in almost every other important statistic, ranking above the 90th percentile in:
- xwOBA (.244)
- xSLG (.286)
- xBA (.168)
- K% (33.2%)
Javier would project well as a back-end reliever, given he relies on two pitches almost 90% of the time. His fastball-slider combo has been killer, having produced a -26 Run Value on the two pitches combined with a whiff rate nearing 40% on the breaking pitch. Javier's 14.1% swinging-strike rate ranks above the 85th percentile of pitchers.
However, Javier has also been productive if you give him the leash. He's cashed over 5.5 strikeouts in 16 of 22 starts this season when he tosses at least 85 pitches, including seven straight starts.
If Cristian Javier can get 170+ IP in 2023, he easily could finish as a top-10 #FantasyBaseball SP.
2022: 148.2 IP, 2.54 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 8.9% BB, 33.2% K, 13.8% SwStr
– 3rd in K%, 7th in K-BB%, 10th in SwStr
– 27+% Whiff rate on all 4 offerings
– Trimmed BB% from 12.5% to 8.9% pic.twitter.com/UGgGWL8IT0— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) October 24, 2022
The Phillies are a scary lineup, as shown by last night's massacre of Lance McCullers Jr. Still, McCullers managed five strikeouts in that disaster after his over/under closed at 4.5, and Framber Valdez managed nine strikeouts in Game 2.
Three different projection systems have Valdez going over his strikeout total, including:
- The Action Labs Player Props Tool: 7.0 Ks
- FanGraphs SaberSim Projections: 6.1 Ks
- BallParkPal's Pitcher Simulations: 6.1 Ks
Javier only needs 85 pitches to get there, and the Astros need a shutdown performance to even the series heading back to Houston. There's value in this over.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (-105)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Odds via FanDuel
If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
After last night's first-inning home run, Harper has cashed his bases total in 12 of his last 13 games. He's slugging .818 during this postseason run, having recorded six home runs and six doubles during the stretch.
Harper is unstoppable right now. He can hit it to every part of the ballpark and against both sides of the plate. It's the most remarkable postseason run in Phillies history.
Bryce Harper is cementing himself as a Philly legend this postseason pic.twitter.com/VZHOaMRqnQ
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) November 2, 2022
The price on his over 1.5 bases should be closer to +110 right now, not +130. BallParkPal's Player Props Tool makes the fair price +115, meaning we're getting solid value at the current +130 price.
Moreover, this is a good matchup for him. As mentioned, Javier relies on a four-seam fastball and slider combination, while Harper has recorded a combined +18 Run Value on the two pitches combined.
Javier throws a four-seam fastball 60% of the time, while Harper has slugged .637 off the pitch on 525 seen in 2022.
I am going to ride this prop until the wheels fall off.
Pick: Over 1.5 TBs (+130)
