Astros vs. Phillies Game 4 Odds
| Astros Odds | -110 |
| Phillies Odds | -110 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Time | 8:03 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Philadelphia Phillies stomped the Houston Astros on Tuesday night en route to a 7-0 victory and a 2-1 World Series lead. Whether Lance McCullers Jr. was tipping his pitches or not, we should be tipping our caps to the Phillies' offense for absolutely punishing every mistake they got their barrels on.
Wednesday night may be a different story as Cristian Javier looks to pull the Astros even in the series. He'll be squaring off against Aaron Nola of the Phils who looks to regain his early postseason form.
Outside of Game 1, neither of the other World Series games have been particularly close. However, the Phillies' two upset victories have the books accounting for their magic and have started Game 4 as a coin flip in terms of moneyline odds.
Will Javier Lift Astros?
Although Javier has had his moments already this postseason, his peripherals are a little shakier than his stellar 1.35 ERA would indicate. Firstly, Javier has only pitched 6 2/3 innings so far this postseason. Therefore, that ERA is born of a relatively tiny sample. Additionally, the same could be said for his 4.31 FIP and 4.36 xFIP.
Another element of Javier's postseason numbers is that the Yankees looked so flat in the ALCS that it's hard to tell if it was the Yankees' collapse or Javier's dominance that led to his bipolar numbers.
On the other side of the ball, the Astros did not end the season on a high note in terms of offense against RHP on the road. They actually posted the worst wRC+ as a team against RHP over the last month of the season and after getting shut out on Tuesday night, it seems that the Astros may have a weakness.
Phillies Hope To Thrive Behind Nola
After a strong start to the postseason, Nola has struggled as the lights have gotten brighter. Despite getting blown out in his last two postseason starts, the Phillies were able to manage an incredible comeback victory in Game 1.
Nola's postseason numbers also offer a glimmer of hope. Over his four starts he's posted a 4.57 ERA, with a 4.08 FIP. However, he has posted a 2.78 xFIP, meaning that if he can keep the ball in the park, he has a good chance at keeping the Phillies in this matchup.
Additionally, the Phillies ended the season with the second best home wRC+ against RHP. They also seem to have shifted into another gear in terms of their absolute disregard for the efficient baseball machine that the Houston Astros have become.
Astros-Phillies Pick
It seems that the odds are reflecting the small, but important edges that both starting pitchers may possess in this game. Both starters are due for regression in either direction and the bullpens make the pitching picture a stalemate.
The Fightin' Phils have truly lived up to their nickname this postseason and after last night's bludgeoning, the Astros need to fire back. Of the three games in this series, two victories were by two or more runs.
With Jordan Baker projected to be the home plate umpire, this might favor the Astros. Nola is best when he gets a little wiggle room around the edges. Additionally, Nola's stuff does not seem to match up well with many of the Astros' swing characteristics.
The Phillies may have the magic, but Javier's pitch types allow him to more safely pound the strike zone than Nola. That seems to be where the edge lies. The Astros' run line sits at +160 on BetRivers and that is worth the risk in game four. Play it to +120.
Pick: Astros run line +160 (BetRivers)
