The Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers odds for ALCS Game 3 opened with Texas as a short favorite on the moneyline. The Rangers are -130 to win Game 3, while the Astros are underdogs at +110.
The total has been set at 9.5 with juice of +100 to the over and -130 to the under. A spread bet on the Rangers is -1.5 and +150, while the Astros are +1.5 and -182.
Read on for an Astros vs. Rangers Game 3 pick and ALCS betting preview.
Astros vs. Rangers ALCS Game 3 Odds, Prediction, Pick
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 9.5 +100o / -122u | +110 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9.5 +100o / -122u | -130 |
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Houston Astros
Cristian Javier had a 4.56 ERA and 4.48 xERA this season. He had a Barrel Rate of 9.4%, an Average Exit Velocity of 89.1 mph, and a Hard-Hit Rate of 38.3%. In addition, he only held a 26.1% groundball rate, which is concerning, knowing the power that resides in the Rangers’ lineup.
His strikeout rate plummeted in the regular season to 23.1%. He also held a 9% walk rate, which he has yet to figure out. He also allowed five walks in the five innings he threw in his only playoff appearance this postseason.
The Astros hammered righties from August 1 through the end of the regular season. They had a 122 wRC+ and .805 OPS with an 18.5% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate. Including the playoffs, they have seven batters above a .320 xwOBA.
In the playoff alone, they have only four batters above a 100 wRC+, so the bottom of the order has to step it up. That said, they will have plenty of looks at a guy who has not thrown since September 16.
The Astros also had a 4.30 xFIP in relief since August 1 to the end of the regular season. In the playoffs, they have 2.57 xFIP, so they have looked stronger. This bullpen has a propensity to walk hitters, so this might come into play with Javier starting, as well.
Texas Rangers
Max Scherzer had a 3.77 ERA this season with a 3.28 xERA. His Barrel Rate was 8.5%, his Average Exit Velocity was 88.5 mph, and his Hard-Hit Rate was 36.9%. He walked 7.2% of hitters with a 28% strikeout rate. The kicker is he held a 33.7% ground-ball rate, which can be concerning against the likes of Yordan Álvarez.
The Rangers have also been consistent against righties. From August 1 to the end of the season, they had a 113 wRC+ with a .788 OPS. Their walk rate was 10.2%, and their strikeout rate was 23.5%.
From that point to where we stand in the playoffs, they have eight batters above a .320 xwOBA, so even better than Houston. Unlike the Astros, the Rangers have six batters in the playoffs above a 100 wRC+, so the bottom of the order is hitting much better.
The Rangers’ bullpen was below-average for much of the season, but isn't too far off from what Houston throws out there at this point in the season.From August 1 through the end of the regular season, they had a 4.32 xFIP. In the playoffs, they have a 2.01 ERA against a 4.87 xFIP.
Astros vs. Rangers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both of these pitching staffs have their question marks, especially in relief. Yes, Houston has pitched better in relief, but both their bullpen and Javier tend to walk batters often.
Texas’ bullpen has been relatively unreliable, outside of a few arms. Scherzer may also not pitch to deep into this game, furthering a strain on an already shaky bullpen.
With that being the case, the over should be in play even at the high number of 9.5.
