The TexasRangers have not been to the ALCS since 2011 while the Houston Astros have been to each of the last seven. Despite the difference in experience between the teams, it is the Rangers who have taken the first two games in this series. Now, they return home for Game 3 and you would think they might get a boost from Max Scherzer rejoining the rotation.
However, the Astros have hit better on the road this season, which has continued into the playoffs. They may be looking forward to facing Scherzer after scoring seven runs off him in September. Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley are a pair of Astros hitters that I am backing.
However, the Rangers also scored eight runs the lone time they saw Cristian Javier this season. Expect Corey Seager to lead the offense again tonight with some help from Evan Carter.
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Astros vs Rangers Game 3 Props
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases
+115
Through his first six games this postseason, Yordan Alvarez has a hit in all but one game. He is 9-for-23 (.391) with two doubles, six home runs, eight runs batted in, and a ridiculous 1.700 OPS. Alvarez is battling a virus and went hitless in Game 1 of the series. You would never know he was sick after he hit two home runs in Game 2. He became the sixth player in postseason history with two multi-homer games in the same postseason.
Now, Alvarez has gotten a day to rest up and feel better. In Game 3, he will face Max Scherzer, and the future Hall of Famer is not a pitcher too many hitters enjoy facing. However, Alvarez has owned the matchup, as he is 4-for-7 with a home run off Scherzer.
This will also be Scherzer's first start since September 12. Since recovering, he has just thrown a 68-pitch simulated game, which he admitted does not come close to matching the intensity of the postseason. Additionally, when we last saw Scherzer in the playoffs with the Mets, the Padres tagged him for seven runs in 4 2/3 innings. I would not be surprised if the Astros gave him the same treatment, led by Alvarez.
With how hot Alvarez has been, combined with the struggles of his teammates, you would think walking him is the best strategy. However, manager Bruce Bochy has said the team has no plans to intentionally walk him. Scherzer is also highly competitive and will not back down from the challenge. Alvarez did draw a walk in Game 2, but he still had three at-bats and capitalized on them. With at least three at-bats tonight, I like his chances of getting two total whether he hits another home run or double.
Michael Brantley/Evan Carter One Hit Parlay
+145
Michael Brantley did not start Game 1 against Jordan Montgomery. Evan Carter did not start Game 2 against Framber Valdez, but did pinch hit for Robbie Grossman and went 0-for-2. I mention this because it's possible part or all of this combo voids once lineups are made official. However, given the matchups and their recent performance, I expect both hitters to start.
Brantley is hitting .357 this postseason and has a hit in all four games he has played in. On Monday, he went 2-for-4 with a double. The 36-year-old has enjoyed many battles over the years with Scherzer dating back to their time in the AL Central playing for Cleveland and Detroit. Brantley is 20-for-54 (.370) with eight doubles, one triple, three home runs, and 11 runs batted in against Scherzer. Brantley is +115 for two total bases, but four of his five hits this postseason have been singles.
We get even better odds by combining him with Evan Carter. We backed the 21-year-old in the Wild Card Series and he cashed for us, but he has not stopped hitting since. Carter is hitting .350 with four doubles, one home run, and three runs batted in. He has a hit in all six games he has started this postseason.
Bochy has also moved Carter up in the lineup, slotting him fifth in Game 1, and that may get him an extra at-bat. Carter has not faced Cristian Javier, but he typically pitches five innings. Carter may only have to deal with him twice. DraftKings is offering a great price here as this parlay is +118 on FanDuel. If Brantley and Carter continue their hot hitting, this will be an easy cash.
Corey Seager Over 1.5 Total Bases
-120
Evan Carter is leading the Rangers in batting average this postseason, but Corey Seager is right behind him. Seager is hitting .348 this postseason, and the moment has not been too big for him. Seager was hitting .345 entering September before a "rough" month in which he hit .277 and lost the AL batting title.
Seager has a hit in six of his first seven games this postseason. In the one game he did not record a hit, he was walked five times. Seager followed up that by hitting a home run in Game 3 of the ALDS, which is the lone game that Texas has played at home this postseason. Seager hit .337 with 23 doubles, 23 home runs, and a 1.113 OPS at Globe Life Park this season.
Seager is just 5-for-20 (.250) against Cristian Javier. However, four of the hits — two doubles and two home runs — have gone for extra bases. He doubled off Javier in June, finishing 1-for-3 against him on that afternoon. That makes Seager a great candidate for two total bases in this matchup.
He has hit this line at a 55% clip this season and that number increases to 63% at home games. Seager will more than likely be hitting second in the Rangers lineup like he always is. That will give him four to five opportunities to hit this line.
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