The opening four games of the Lone Star series have not disappointed at all, and Game Five sets up as a wildly interesting swing game featuring a rematch of the series opener between Justin Verlander and Jordan Montgomery.
Astros vs. Rangers Game 5 Player Props
Jordan Montgomery Over 5.5 Hits Allowed -110
Jordan Montgomery dominated the Astros in Game One, allowing only five hits and zero earned runs across 6 and 1/3 IP. He did allow six hard-hit balls, and an average exit velocity of 91.64 MPH. His strikeout % has dipped to 17.4% this postseason, despite his solid results thus far. He has still allowed 20 hits in 18 and 1/3 innings this postseason, and facing the Astros lineup for a second time in five days is not the same story as facing the Rays and Orioles.
Montgomery sported a 4.04 xERA entering the playoffs, and a Stuff+ rating of 97. He has not a made solid case that his form is significantly different despite a 1.96 ERA entering this game.
Houston has hit to a wRC+ of 119 this postseason, and struck out only 21.9% of the time. It owned a wRC+ of 126 in the second half versus left-handed pitching, and hit fastballs, changeups, and curveballs at better than league average rates.
89% of Montgomery's breaking ball strikeouts are located out of the zone this season, which is the highest mark in the league. He's thrown his curveball 25% of the time with RISP, which is the 5th highest mark.
Adjustments are key to grinding out the five and seven game series formats, and the Astros current core has proven the ability to do so. Montgomery will need to shake up his looks to generate soft contact today, as I do not believe he possesses the stuff to dominate Houston elsewise.
The Astros have roasted the Rangers staff thus far in Texas with 19 hits in two games entering this matchup, and while the roof being closed does hurt hitting conditions, I do feel Montgomery is getting a lot of respect in this matchup.
Backing Montgomery to allow over 5.5 hits is my favorite way to fade him as he should get a long leash in this spot. Texas bullpen is taxed and Montgomery's going to be given credit for the rest of his playoffs. That should lead to a lot of innings of work for Houston to get us our six hits off him.
