Astros vs. Rays Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| +150 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -140 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -175 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +120 |
A few weeks ago, it didn't seem like an April series at Tropicana Field between the Astros and Rays would be worth tuning into, but it's arguably the most anticipated series of the season to this point. Tampa Bay has lost just three games all season while the Astros have turned it on of late, winning four straight to get to 12-10 on the season.
Let's stop wasting time and get into the best way to bet this one in our Astros vs. Rays preview and predictions.
Houston Astros
The year is 2023 and I still think Jose Urquidy is an incredibly mediocre pitcher. He owned a 3.94 ERA a season ago with a high 4.56 xERA on account of all the hard-hit balls and barrels he let up. When it was all said and done, he had a .385 xwOBA on contact and a whopping 40.8% of all batted balls he yielded were hit 95+ mph off the bat — both of which were career-worsts.
So, I'm going to have to see a bit more than three good starts against the White Sox, Twins and Pirates before I change my mind about the veteran right-hander. That's all to say, his last outing against the Blue Jays went very poorly. Urquidy allowed seven hits and two walks over just 4 1/3 innings, surrendering two homers and four earned runs in total. He's now allowed four home runs in 19 2/3 innings to go along with a poor 20% strikeout rate and worsening 8.2% walk rate.
The Astros have begun to feel it a bit at the plate, posting a 108 wRC+ over the last week to rank 10th among all teams. The big issue here is that their Isolated Power sits at just .129 and their walk rate at 6.6%. Houston has reached base and scored runs largely thanks to base hits, which is going to help against certain pitchers but probably not its opponent on Monday.
Tampa Bay Rays
Let's talk about Taj Bradley, who will make his third career start for the Rays in this one. So far, he's thrown 10 1/3 innings and allowed just three runs on eight hits and two walks with a super 17 strikeouts. To be fair to Urquidy, because I did just do the same thing to him, Bradley had the luxury of facing Boston and Cincinnati in those two starts.
The difference here is that Bradley is a heralded prospect and there are many reasons to believe in his future. He had a sky-high 30.9% strikeout rate in Double-A last year and has always been an elite swing-and-miss arm. That's why it's no surprise to see his strikeout brilliance at this level, and there are two very encouraging signs that have come along with it. The first is that Bradley's posted just a .164 expected batting average, and the second is that his walk rate sits at just 5%, which is great news considering that's been an area he's struggled at times in the past.
I figured we'd talk a lot about Bradley here because it's getting exhausting to discuss the Rays' offense. They're second in wRC+ over the last week of play and have a stupid .232 ISO with a low 20.9% strikeout rate. Tampa Bay has hit .289 with 12 home runs over those six games. That's very good.
Astros vs. Rays Betting Pick
The Rays are deserving favorites here. Bradley's met his sky-high expectations to this point and has proven to be a capable strikeout arm throughout his professional career, which is going to jive with the Astros' current way of doing business. Bradley isn't going to be one to allow a ton of contact, so Houston's singles-heavy offense should slow its roll in this one.
On the other hand, I am still pretty sour on Urquidy and would love to bet someone that his ERA will once again come in over four runs. He isn't well-equipped to deal with an offense with as much power as this one with his years of struggles in limiting barrels and home runs. Urquidy is the total opposite of Bradley, and pitching to contact against the Rays could be one of the hardest asks around right now.
Pick: Rays -1.5 (+136) |
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