Astros vs. Red Sox ALCS Game 3 Odds
| Astros Odds | -102 |
| Red Sox Odds | -116 |
| Over/Under | 9 (-120 / +100) |
| Time | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Game 3 of the American League Championship Series is tonight when the Astros and Red Sox square off at Fenway Park in Boston.
Jose Urquidy takes the mound for Houston and will be opposed by Eduardo Rodriguez. By the end of the night, one team will have a 2-1 series lead and all the momentum going forward.
Boston is favored, but not by much, and our analysts have two picks to recommend for tonight's game, including a first five total and a moneyline play on the underdogs.
Here are our best bets for Game 3 of the ALCS.
MLB Odds & Picks
First Five Innings Over 5 (-105)
Odds via Caesars
Brad Cunningham: Jose Urquidy was solid for the Astros this season, posting a 3.87 xERA, and the main reason for that was because he had a very low 1.75 BB/9 rate. However, he’s not a big strikeout pitcher, as his K/9 rate is at 7.57 and his HR/9 rate is sitting around 1.5.
The problem for him in this matchup he’s facing a Red Sox lineup that is third in MLB in terms of wOBA against right-handed pitching. Urquidy is also a fastball-heavy pitcher, going to it 54.2% of the time, and the Red Sox lineup has a +14.8 run value against fastballs since the trade deadline.
Even if Urquidy wants to go to his main two off-speed pitches of slider and changeup, the Red Sox are the number two team in baseball against both of those pitches.
Eduardo Rodriguez will get the start for Boston tonight and his numbers have actually been really good, as he has only a 3.43 xFIP with a 10.56 K/9 rate. But he’s going to up against the number one lineup in baseball against left-handed pitching in terms of wRC+.
The Astros also have advantages against Rodriguez, who mainly utilizes a fastball, changeup and cutter combination. The Astros have a +36.1 run value against fastballs and are top five in baseball against sliders and cutters.
I have 5.48 runs projected for this first five innings, so I think there is some value on Over 5 runs at -105 or better.
Astros +100
Odds via BetMGM
Collin Whitchurch: I'm simply not willing to fade the Astros against a left-handed pitcher right now.
Eduardo Rodriguez is a better pitcher than his numbers, but he matches up terribly against the Astros. Rodriguez faced Houston twice this season, and allowed six earned runs both times, including once at Fenway Park.
The Astros led the majors with a 117 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. They were fourth in wOBA, third in slugging percentage, and the toughest team in the majors to strike out.
The Astros will roll a plethora of right-handed bats at the top of their order. The only hitter who struggles against lefties is Michael Brantley, as the other southpaw — Yordan Alvarez — hits lefties just as well as he does right-handers.
It's likely to be a short night for Rodriguez, and Jose Urquidy is an underrated arm who should be able to get through the Boston lineup twice before turning it over the the Houston bullpen, which has been more solid this postseason than the regular-season numbers.
I'm a big fan of getting the Astros as underdogs against a lefty, and would bet then to -105.
