Tarik Skubal and the Tigers (86-76) snagged the win in Game 1, so the Astros (88-73) will look to keep their season alive in Game 2.
Detroit doesn't have a real starting option besides Skubal, so it'll go with an opener on Wednesday. We'll see how that approach works in a road environment with Houston's season on the line.
I constructed a same-game parlay that pays out at +704 odds on FanDuel for Game 2.
Astros vs Tigers MLB Picks, Parlay for Wild Card Game 2
- First Inning Result: Tie (-140)
- Astros Moneyline (-170)
- Kerry Carpenter 2+ Total Bases (+145)
Parlay Odds: +704 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
First Inning Result: Tie (-140)
Tigers vs. Astros, 2:32 p.m. ET
The bats remained fairly quiet in Game 1 of this Tigers vs Astros showdown, particularly in the first inning. Both Framber Valdez and Tarik Skubal skated through the first inning on fewer than 20 combined pitches.
Of course, neither Skubal nor Valdez is on the mound here, but the pitching matchup remains formidable.
That's why I like a "tie" in the first inning.
Hunter Brown should aid in setting the tone for the Astros, who have their backs against the wall in an elimination game. Brown has kept the opposition scoreless in the first inning in nine of his past 10 outings — the one exception being to the White Sox of all teams.
Opposing Brown is an opener, in typical 2024 Tigers fashion. It's the very reliable Tyler Holton, who pitched a single out in the series opener. Holton has served a myriad of roles for Detroit, including nine opening outings and eight saves. He'll enter his first postseason "start" with a 0.79 ERA over his past 45 1/3 innings with a 0.64 WHIP.
I love this play to open up the SGP.
Astros Moneyline (-170)
Tigers vs. Astros, 2:32 p.m. ET
I'm siding with the Astros to win Game 2, just like I did in Game 1. Yes, going against Skubal didn't work out. That was a bad call on my part, but I won't let Game 1 impact my thoughts on the Astros in Game 2. Houston will have a much more favorable matchup once Holton exits the game and gives way to Reese Olson.
Olson clearly isn't stretched out much as he's gone four or fewer innings in all three outings since returning from the Injured List. A.J. Hinch is likely hoping to get through five innings with Holton and Olson. Plus, Olson has allowed seven earned runs over 9 1/3 innings since coming back.
Brown is the much better pitcher to back, as evidenced by the -170 line. The breakout phenom boasts a 3.49 ERA with a 3.58 FIP, but is pitching to a 2.50 ERA since early May. He started the season rough, but is now an irreplaceable option in the Astros' rotation.
Houston only scored one run in the series opener against Skubal and the top options in Detroit's bullpen. That's an anomaly based on the Astros' strong September, during which they posted a 115 wRC+, which ranked fourth in MLB. They have a pretty scary top four with Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez, all of whom posted a wRC+ above 120 in September. I imagine the Tigers can only limit the Astros' scary bats for so long.
Kerry Carpenter 2+ Total Bases (+145)
Tigers vs. Astros, 2:32 p.m. ET
I'm a huge fan of Kerry Carpenter. He's one of the better hitters in baseball that the casual fan doesn't know much about, but could soon learn about.
After sitting against Valdez in Game 1, then pinch-hitting later and going 0-for-2, Carpenter will bat high in the order against Brown. Carpenter boasts a 160 wRC+ with 18 homers and a pristine .303 isolated power.
He hasn't fared well against Brown in his career, going just 2-for-11. However, that's not something unique to Carpenter as most of the Tigers haven't performed well against Brown. However, Carpenter can crush any righty, so I'm going to back him at plus money.
