The Major League Baseball regular season is over. It's time to turn our attention to the 2024 MLB playoffs and Tigers vs Astros odds to win the AL Wild Card series, World Series, pennant and more lines.
The Astros opened as -180 favorites to win this Wild Card round series, with the Tigers listed as +150 underdogs (via bet365).
Tigers vs. Astros Series Odds for Wild Card Round in MLB Playoffs
| Tigers | Astros | |
|---|---|---|
| Series Winner | +150 | -180 |
| Win in 2 | +370 | +190 |
| Win in 3 | +700 | +440 |
Tigers vs. Astros Schedule
- Game 1: Tuesday, October 1, 2:32 p.m. ET, ABC
- Game 2: Wednesday, October 2, 2:32 p.m. ET, ABC
- Game 3: Thursday, October 3, 2:32 p.m. ET, ABC (if necessary)
Tigers Playoff Preview
Tigers odds & ranks
- World Series Odds: +3200
- Pennant Odds: +1200
- Regular Season Record: 86-76
- Team wRC+ (100 is league average): 95 (21st)
- Starting Pitching xFIP: 3.68 (3rd)
- Bullpen xFIP: 4.02 (15th)
How the Tigers Crashed the Wild Card
How did the Tigers get here? That is a phenomenal question.
I’m not sure anybody knows the answer to that. On Aug. 11, Detroit was just 55-63 and sat 11 games outside of playoff position behind the final AL wild-card team. The Tigers' odds were +3000 to make the postseason.
After that date, Detroit went an incredible 31-12, the best record in baseball over that stretch. After being sellers at the trade deadline, the Tigers now enter the postseason as baseball’s hottest team.
Offense
For the casual baseball fan just tuning in for the postseason, you might not be familiar with many of the Tigers' hitters. They hardly have a single household name or superstar in this lineup.
The Tigers ranked just 19th in scoring this season and 24th in home runs. Even during their hot stretch to end the season, they only ranked 13th in wOBA and 12th in wRC+, just above league average.
However, they have done a great job of coming up with timely hitting and scoring when it counts. Detroit ranks seventh with .788 team OPS with runners in scoring position.
The Tigers might not have a true superstar, but outfielder Riley Greene is certainly a name you should know. He hit 24 home runs this season and amassed an .827 OPS on the year.
Injuries cost fellow outfielder Kerry Carpenter nearly half the season, but when he is healthy, he’s one of the most underrated hitters in the game. Carpenter had a .932 OPS in 87 games and enters the playoffs locked in at the plate.
Rotation
This rotation starts as good as it gets with the runaway AL CY Young Award winner in Tarik Skubal.
Skubal was brilliant from start to finish, finishing the year 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA in 31 starts. He secured the AL pitching Triple Crown, leading the AL in wins, ERA and strikeouts. He is the first pitcher to earn the Triple Crown in a full season since 2011. Giving the ball to Skubal in Game 1 is as good as it gets.
After that, things get a little hairy for the Tigers. Detroit traded Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, not expecting to go on a historic run to make the postseason. That being said, the team still has a bunch of options.
Reese Olson, 25, will likely get the ball in Game 2. He pitched to a 3.53 ERA in 22 starts this season but missed nearly two months late in the year with a shoulder injury. He returned to make three starts at the end of the season, but was still ramping his workload back up, staying under four innings in each start.
Keider Montero could be an option for a possible third game, but the Tigers have also had a lot of success mixing and matching openers and bulk relievers. That recipe is what got them here, so don’t be surprised if they throw the kitchen sink in a decisive game with their season on the line.
Bullpen
Detroit’s bullpen got more work during the season than any team in baseball. Its relievers tossed 694 innings this year, 39 more than the next closest team.
The group ranked fourth with a 3.54 ERA. However, the expected metrics are a little more questionable with a league-average 4.02 xFIP. They were not a high strikeout group, but that was countered by a 7.3% walk rate — the best mark in the league.
Part of the success of this unit has come from mixing and matching and riding the hot hand. The Tigers use a four-way closer committee featuring Jason Foley, Tyler Holton, Beau Brieske and Will Vest to handle the back innings, although Foley gets the majority of the save situations.
Holton has probably been their most reliable bullpen arm, with a 2.19 ERA in more than 94 innings this season.
The Tigers will also have an interesting decision to make with Jackson Jobe. They called up their top pitching prospect last week to make his MLB debut in relief, and he looked great in two appearances. Could he make the postseason roster as a bullpen arm?
Astros Playoff Preview
Astros odds & ranks
- World Series Odds: +750
- Pennant Odds: +320
- Regular Season Record: 88-73
- Team wRC+: 111 (6th)
- Starting pitching xFIP: 3.93 (8th)
- Bullpen xFIP: 3.94 (12th)
Old Reliable: How the Astros Made the Playoffs (Again)
Death, taxes, and the Astros in the playoffs.
This will mark Houston’s eighth consecutive postseason appearance. You can actually argue this is the worst iteration of its playoff teams. The Astros' 88 wins are the fewest they have had in a full season over this stretch, but you can bet there isn’t a team in the postseason who wants to face them.
Houston got off to a slow start out of the gate and a hot Seattle team quickly put the Astros 10 games back in the AL West race. However, Houston really got going and the Mariners struggled down the stretch, and the inevitable Astros won the division by 3 1/2 games.
Offense
This might not have been the top-five offense we have seen in recent years, but the fall wasn’t too bad. The 'Stros ranked sixth in wRC+ this season.
The Astros finished the year 11th in scoring and even without the raw power we are used to, they still do all the little things right. Houston ranked second in the league in strikeout rate and have the second-best team batting average.
What makes this Astros season so impressive is that they did most of it without one of their best players as Kyle Tucker played just 78 games this season. He returned to the lineup in early September and hit .365 with a 1.040 OPS over the last month.
However, now they have a new question with Yordan Alvarez, who is dealing with a knee sprain.
Houston has more postseason experience than any team in the dance, led by Jose Altuve (103 playoff games) and Alex Bregman (97 playoff games). With Bregman set to become a free agent and Altuve getting older, this will likely be the final run for this core.
Rotation
The Astros have produced the American League’s lowest ERA since May 1.
Framber Valdez will get the ball in Game 1, and then likely Hunter Brown in Game 2 and Yusei Kikuchi in Game 3. Valdez finished third in the American League with a 2.91 ERA and went 15-7 in 28 starts this season. He pounds his sinker-curveball combo for one the highest ground-ball rates in the league.
Brown had a breakout campaign in his second full season, pitching to a 3.49 ERA in 30 starts this season. He has the third-lowest ERA in the league since the All-Star break at just 2.26. Valdez ranks second.
Kikuchi was struggling to a 4.75 ERA in Toronto before being traded to Houston at the trade deadline. Then, like magic, Kikuchi dazzled to a 5-1 record in 2.70 ERA in 10 starts for the Astros.
This doesn’t even account for Ronel Blaco (2.80 ERA this season), Spencer Arrighetti (3.18 ERA post All-Star break) or the three-time Cy Young Winner, two-time World Series Champion and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander.
Bullpen
Houston’s bullpen is not considered its strength but it ranks eighth in the league in ERA and 12th in xFIP.
This group is not as deep as it has been at times, but Josh Hader and Bryan Abreau make up a top-tier back end and Ryan Pressly and Hector Neris have had plenty of success as well.
Given the depth in the Astros rotation, the bullpen could get deeper if they choose to work Blanco, Arrighetti or even Verlander out of the 'pen.
— Team previews by Mike Ianniello
