Sonny Gray has been a stable force in a great Minnesota Twin rotation. He's set to start Game 3 of the ALDS against Cristian Javier and the Houston Astros as the series shifts to Minnesota. Javier was one of the best starting pitchers in baseball in 2022, but he fell off a bit this season. The problem is the Minnesota Twins can hammer right-handed pitching. Houston does, as well, but facing Gray is a tall task. That said, Gray has some unfavorable metrics.
Since Minnesota has consistently hit well off of righties, and Houston's bullpen has been subpar since August 1, the Twins team total should be in play.
Astros vs. Twins Odds Game 3
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 8 -108o / -112u | +110 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 8 -108o / -112u | -130 |
Houston Astros
Javier has a 4.56 ERA and a 4.48 xERA. His Barrel Rate is 9.4% with an 89.1 mph Average Exit Velocity and a 38.3% Hard-Hit Rate. However, he's struggled to keep the ball out of the air this season. His strikeout rate of 23.1% is 10.1% lower than it was last season. He's also walking 9% of opposing batters. His numbers did not improve in the second half, either. He had a 4.84 ERA over 70 2/3 innings after the All-Star break.
Javier ranks in the first percentile with a 26.1% ground-ball rate, so if teams hit him hard, they can hit for power. The Twins had the fourth-lowest ground-ball rate this season and ranked fifth in hard-hit rate. This is going to be a rough matchup for Javier.
The Astros have been able to handle righties. From August 1 to the end of the regular season, Houston held a 122 wRC+ and a .805 OPS with a 9.1% walk rate and 18.5% strikeout rate. However, they only had five bats with a xwOBA over .320 xwOBA.
In relief, since August 1, the Astros were in the bottom-half of the league with a 4.30 xFIP. They walked 9.5% of hitters and had a 24.7% strikeout rate. Only three arms on the roster were under a 4.00 xFIP in that timeframe, so the middle relief staff is just not reliable. The Astros need to hand the ball to Phil Maton, Rafael Montero, maybe Ryne Stanek and Ryan Pressly to be strong. The problem is Javier can quickly rack up pitches and may get in trouble against a patient Twins lineup.
Minnesota Twins
Gray had a 2.79 ERA against a 3.69 xERA this season. His Average Exit Velocity was 89.1 mph with a Barrel Rate of 6.9% and a Hard-Hit Rate of 39.2%. His strikeout rate was 24.3% and his walk rate was 7.3%. His second-half ERA was 2.67, but those expected numbers show some regression may be coming. On the other hand, he had a 48% ground-ball rate, so he can mitigate hard contact.
The Twins had a 118 wRC+ and a .783 OPS off of righties from August 1 to the end of the season. They also had a 26% strikeout rate and a 11.4% walk rate. Additionally, Minnesota had seven bats with a xwOBA over .320, including five hitters above .360.
BACK-TO-BACK! 🤯
Royce Lewis hits his 3rd HR of the postseason!
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The Twins bullpen held a 4.12 xFIP over the final two months of the regular season. Minnesota's relievers also had a 26.6% strikeout rate and a 9.5% walk rate.
Astros vs. Twins
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