The Astros are one game away from getting back to their seventh-straight ALCS as they try to close out the Twins in Game 4.
Outside of one Pablo López start, the Astros have been hitting the ball effectively this series and have gotten good starting pitching performances from Justin Verlander and Cristian Javier. They'll send José Urquidy to the mound to try and nail the coffin shut on the Twins and set up an AL West showdown with with Rangers.
Bad starts in both Games 1 and 3 are the reason Minnesota has its back against the wall. With their season on the line, the Twins will hand the ball to Joe Ryan, who has not pitched yet this postseason. The Twins need to start this game better than they have in this series or else they will be going home.
Here is my breakdown and Astros vs. Twins pick for Game 4.
Astros vs. Twins Odds Game 3 Wednesday
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -198 | 8 -120o / +100u | +102 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 8 -120o / +100u | -122 |
Houston Astros
Urquidy has had an interesting season to say the least. He was on the IL for three months with a shoulder injury, returned in early August and has started four games and made six appearances out of the bullpen.
Since he returned from the injury, though, he's been pretty bad. He's had an xFIP over five in both August and September and can't get righties or lefties out, allowing over a .320 wOBA to both. The weird part is that his Stuff+ rating has gone up from 99 in April to 105 since he returned from the injury with his velocity staying pretty steady.
The problem that Urquidy has run into this season is he's walking far too many guys. His BB/9 rate is sitting at 3.57, which is the highest mark of his career and he also isn't getting that many swings and misses, ranking in the ninth percentile for strikeout percentage.
He has five different pitches he can throw, but his sweeper and fastball are the only two pitches that are above-average by Stuff+.
The Astros' lineup has showed throughout this series just how dangerous they are. Houston was the best team in baseball by wOBA over the last 30 days of the regular season and has continued to hit the ball hard this postseason. The Astros were sixth overall this season in wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
Houston does have a big valunerability in their bullpen, which has been very evident in this series. In Game 1, Justin Verlander pitched an outstanding six innings allowing only four hits and no runs. Hector Neris then came in and proceeded to immediately give up four runs. to make the game interesting.
Over the second half of the season, the Astros' bullpen was 22nd in xFIP, but all of their problems got covered up by an 81.2% strand rate.
The Astros also won't be able to get in a split advantage against the Twins, who are one of the best lineups against righties, but terrible against lefties because literally every pitcher in the Astros' bullpen is right handed.
Minnesota Twins
Ryan is a very interesting case because, coming into the season, he was thought to be the Twins' best starting pitcher, but his stuff has dropped off pretty significantly as the season has gone along.
In the first half of the season his Stuff+ was sitting at 102, which is above league average, but since the All-Star break his Stuff+ is down to 95. He was hampered by a groin strain that briefly put him on the IL in August, which could be a reason why his effectiveness has gone down.
The main problem for Ryan is that the velocity on his fastball is down a full mph from where it was in April. That may not seem like that big of a deal, but when you are someone like Ryan who is throwing this fastball over 56% of the time, it can become a big issue.
Outside of his fastball, he only has two other pitches he throws: a split finger and sweeper. The split finger's Stuff+ rating has dropped from 95 in the first half to 85 in the second half with hitters having over a .400 xwOBA against it.
The Twins, though, will have good advantages offensively against the Astros' pitchers. The Twins absolutely mash right-handed pitching, finishing top five in wOBA, and they were top three in that category in the last 30 days of the regular season. So, with Houston not going to be able to throw a lefty at them, Minnesota will be live in this game.
It's a win or go home game, so everyone in the bullpen is available, but with Bailey Ober and Kenta Maeda pitching in Game 3, I would imagine that when Ryan runs into the first sign of trouble, manager Rocco Baldelli will turn to Louie Varland to give them some innings or empty the clip and play matchups for the rest of the game.
Astros vs. Twins
Betting Pick & Prediction
Urquidy has pitched in the postseason a lot over the past few years. He's racked up a total of 36 1/3 innings, but he really hasn't been that great of a pitcher when the lights are shining the brightest. In the postseason he has an xFIP over 5.
Even with Urquidy's struggles, I am not sure there is going to be much of an advantage for Minnesota given Ryan's struggles over the second half of the season. This is a do-or-die game and even though Maeda and Ober pitched yesterday, basically the rest of Minnesota's bullpen is available. I don't think Baldelli will hesitate to go right to his bullpen at the first sign of trouble.
Ryan has only gone five or more innings in five of his last nine starts and has faced Houston twice this season, giving up a combined nine earned runs.
His pitching outs total of 14.5 at -125 (BetMGM) is a tad high given the situation the Twins are in and given the fact that he hasn't been lasting long into his starts to end the regular season.
Pick: Joe Ryan Pitching Outs Under 14.5 (-125 at BetMGM)
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