Astros vs. White Sox Odds
| Astros Odds | -105 |
| White Sox Odds | -115 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Time | 1:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Chicago fought off elimination on Sunday night at home against Houston, and after a rain out on Monday, the White Sox have a chance to force a do-or-die Game 5 if they can win on Tuesday at home.
The rainout changed the pitching situation for the Astros, who will start ace Lance McCullers Jr. on regular rest instead of saving him for a potential game 5. The White Sox kept with their plan to pitch left-hander Carlos Rodón in Game 4 and will save both Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito for a potential game 5 on regular rest.
The Astros pitched McCullers in Game 1 and he tossed 6 2/3 shutout innings as the White Sox managed just four hits and had a lot of soft contact. The White Sox will get a second look at him but given his advanced numbers, it's not a good matchup for Chicago's offense.
On the other side, Rodón experienced arm issues and a velocity dip in the second half of the season after a Cy Young push early on. Given the White Sox trust in him to pitch this game with other options available, you have to think that Chicago has seen positive signs in his bullpen sessions.
Runs should be hard to come by in this game, despite all of the mashing in the first three games of the series.
Astros Get Boost With McCullers
McCullers has only allowed 13 home runs all season in 29 starts this year. While control and strike throwing has never been a strength for him, he strikes out a lot of batters and induces a lot of ground balls. His OPS allowed the first and second time through the order is .542 and .649, both well above league average.
He’s unlikely to get a third time through the order in the first five innings. McCullers posted a 3.16 ERA, 3.52 FIP and a 3.39 xERA in the regular season and he pitches around his walks well because of the ground balls he manages.
Houston's above-average infield defense behind him also works to his benefit and it'll be very hard for the White Sox to string together a bunch of hits to score runs off him because he has the third-lowest home run allowed per 9 rate in all of baseball.
McCullers will pitch five to six innings and then Houston can turn it over to a bullpen that will be more well-rested after a day off on Monday. There's a few pitchers who have been hit hard — like Yimi García — who is unlikely to feature.
While Houston struggles in middle relief and with bullpen depth, the back-end of the bullpen with Kendall Graveman and Ryan Pressly should be able to close the door if needed or prevent runs effectively.
All Eyes on Rodón For White Sox
The White Sox have crushed left-handed pitching all season long and hit Astros' lefty Framber Valdez pretty hard earlier in this series. But their numbers aren't nearly as good as righties and Chicago has now managed three runs in 20 2/3 innings against McCullers this season.
The White Sox have the third-highest groundball rate in the league against righties and are prone to grounding into double plays that should help McCullers get out of trouble if needed.
Chicago's Rodón gets the start and if he faces any kind of trouble with his arm, velocity or the Astros' lineup, manager Tony La Russa should have a very quick hook in an elimination game.
That means lots of bullpen action, where the White Sox have Garrett Crochet, Ryan Tepera, Aaron Bummer, Liam Hendriks and Craig Kimbrel — all above average relievers — to unleash. It's an elimination game, so La Russa has to be aggressive and use everyone to prevent runs at all costs, although he said on Monday that Michael Kopech won't be available after he threw 47 pitches on Sunday.
If Rodón pitches well, that's even better for the under, but if he doesn't, he won't be in long. Rodón has pitched 14 innings in two outings and allowed just one run while striking out 18 against Houston this season.
I don't pay too much attention to small samples against one team in one season, but he has been one of the few lefties able to get outs against the Astros' lineup this season. He doesn't overly rely on his fastball, which is important against an Astros lineup that mashes fastballs. (Ask Lance Lynn).
Rodón also has a low walk rate and a high whiff rate, both important to not give free passes to a lineup that feasted off walks in Games 1 and 2. He also has the stuff to miss the bats in the zone, given that Houston chases balls fewer than every other team in the league.
Astros-White Sox Pick
Our Action Network PRO projection has this game sets the total at 8.21 runs. It might be a little inflated because of a forecasting 10-mph wind blowing out, but McCullers tends to keep the ball on the ground and Chicago is likely to throw a lot of rested bullpen arms at the Astros' lineup after four or five innings from Rodón.
Maybe the White Sox figure out how to hit McCullers and the Astros finally get to Rodón this season, but I'm trusting the numbers and expecting there to be way fewer runs in this game than there were in the first three of this series. Houston's offense hasn't been as good away from Minute Maid Park this year, either.
Anything 8.5 or better at -110 or better is worth a play, and I'd even recommend splitting your bet with an under 4.5 in the first five innings at -110 or better as well.
Pick: Under 8.5 runs (-110 or better)
