Athletics vs. Guardians Odds
| Athletics Odds | +115 |
| Guardians Odds | -135 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (+100/-120) |
| Time | 11:35 a.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
We have the fourth and final matchup of this series as the AL Central's Cleveland Guardians host the AL West's Oakland Athletics. This has been a high-scoring series thus far and the total has gone over this number in two of the first three games with a series average of 10.7 runs scored per game.
Will we get another high-scoring affair between these two teams, or can the pitching step up this time around?
Oakland Athletics: Pitching Staff has Struggled Lately
The Oakland Athletics finally broke their losing streak on Saturday as they took down the Guardians, 10-5. During their losing streak, the Athletics were quickly racking up high-scoring games — there have been nine or more runs scored in eight of their past 14 contests (57%).
I expect this trend to continue on Sunday as left-hander Cole Irvin is slated to take the mound for Oakland. Through nine starts this season, Irvin is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.255 WHIP.
While those surface-level stats are pretty good, Irvin's poor metrics suggest regression is looming. This season, Irvin possesses a .378 xwOBA, .293 xBA and .566 xSLG.
There have been nine or more runs scored in two of his past three starts (67%). Following Irvin is one of the worst bullpens in baseball.
Since May 1st, the Athletics' relief pitching ranks 28th in the league in ERA, 25th in BA, 19th in SLG and 25th in OPS.
Cleveland Guardians: Offense Should Find Success
Like Oakland, the Cleveland Guardians have also seen some high-scoring games lately. There have been nine or more runs scored in eight of their past 12 contests (75%) and I expect this trend to continue Sunday as right-hander Cal Quantrill is expected to take the mound for Cleveland.
Through 10 starts this season, Quantrill is 3-3 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.203 WHIP. Like Irvin, Quantrill's poor metrics suggest regression is right around the corner.
This season, Quantrill possesses a .339 xwOBA, .272 xBA and .451 xSLG. There have been nine or more runs scored in each of his past two starts.
The good news for Quantrill is that his offense should give him good run support as they are slated to go against left-hander Cole Irvin. Since May 1st, Cleveland ranks eighth in the league in BA and 15th in OPS when facing left-handed pitchers at home.
Over 29 career plate appearances against Irvin, this current Guardians roster boasts a .296 BA, .333 SLG and .305 wOBA.
Athletics-Guardians Pick
I am backing the trends in this game and taking the over. Irvin is due for major regression and Quantrill is average at best.
The weather may give us a very small boost in this game as well with the forecast calling for 7-9 mph winds blowing out to right-center. There have been nine or more runs scored in six of the past eight meetings between these two teams (75%).
Pick: Athletics/Guardians o8.5 (+100) | Play up to (-115)
