Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
We leverage props from five of the most popular sportsbooks against our projections and award each prop a grade. The most exploitable props earn a Bet Quality of 10 out of 10, and those props have historically crushed during NBA and NFL season.
Wednesday's props focus on MLB, specifically the AL wild-card game between the A's and Yankees at 8:08 p.m. ET on TBS.
Let’s dive in to two props that I feel are offering significant value.
A’s 1B Matt Olson
The pick: Will hit a HR (+425)
Yankee Stadium is known for being a bandbox of a stadium, but there are surprisingly few batters in the lineup who seem poised to take advantage.
The short porch in right field routinely turns fly balls into home runs, which benefits left-handed batters more than righties.
Olson is one of the just three pure left-handed hitters available in this game, and the stadium dimensions seem to fit his game perfectly: He has a 42% pull rate and has hit 41 of his 53 career HRs to right field.
Olson will also be on the positive side of his batting splits against Yankees starter Luis Severino.
He’s posted a .361 wOBA and .252 ISO when on the road against right-handers this season, and Severino has allowed a .376 wOBA to left-handed batters over the second half of the year.
Olson is being way undervalued in the prop market, owning just the eighth-highest home run odds on Wednesday's slate.
A’s 3B Matt Chapman vs. Yankees OF Aaron Judge
The pick: Chapman more total bases (+100 at MyBookie)
I don’t get this line at all. Judge recently returned to the Yankees lineup after an extended stay on the disabled list but hasn't appeared to be the same player.
He’s still recovering from a wrist injury, which is known to sap a player’s power, and Judge recorded just three extra-base hits over his final 12 games.
Judge doesn’t offer much when he’s not hitting for power: His OPS of .675 in that span was nearly .300 points lower than his first-half mark.
Meanwhile, Chapman has emerged as one of the best hitters in baseball. He posted a .405 wOBA and 162 wRC+ after the All-Star break, and his numbers have been even better when away from the unfriendly hitting confines of the Oakland Coliseum.
He’s also fared well against both left- and right-handed pitchers, so he should have a chance to do damage against whoever is on the mound for the Yankees.
I love getting the better hitter — at least at the moment — at even money.
