The Atlanta Braves (81-70) take on the Cincinnati Reds (74-78) at Great American Ballpark on Wednesday night. These two National League squads will be facing off in the second game of a three game series after Cincinnati won by a score of 6-5 on Tuesday.
Atlanta is battling for its postseason life as it is two games out of the final NL wild-card spot behind both the New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks entering Wednesday. The Reds are essentially eliminated at this point as they are 74-78 and 9 1/2 games out of a wild-card spot.
Let’s take a look at my Braves vs Reds prediction — a first five innings (F5) pick — for Wednesday, September 18.
Braves-Reds Predictions
- Braves-Reds pick: Braves F5 -0.5 (-110 | Play to -120)
My Braves-Reds best bet is on the Braves F5 -0.5, where I see value at -110. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-142 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | -1.5 +120 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | +1.5 -142 |
- Braves-Reds Moneyline: Braves -142 | Reds +120
- Braves-Reds Over/Under: 8.5 total runs (-108o / -112u)
- Braves-Reds Spread: Braves -1.5 (+120) | Reds +1.5 (-142)
Wednesday Probable Starting Pitchers for Braves-Reds
| RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) | Stat | RHP Jakob Junis (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-7 | W-L | 4-0 |
| 2.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 3.73 / 3.38 | ERA /xERA | 2.73 / 4.15 |
| 3.35 / 3.32 | FIP / xFIP | 3.83 / 3.96 |
| 1.10 | WHIP | 0.89 |
| 21.9% | K-BB% | 16.3% |
| 39.4% | GB% | 38.0% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 107 | Location+ | 108 |
Cody Goggin's Braves-Reds Previews
Braves Betting Preview: Will Schwellenbach Continue To Impress?
Spencer Schwellenbach will take the mound for Atlanta tonight. The 24-year old rookie has made 18 starts this season, pitching 103⅔ innings with 113 strikeouts and a 3.73 ERA. He has a 3.38 xERA, 3.32 xFIP, and a 3.33 SIERA as he has been very impressive.
Schwellenbach has a 101 Stuff+ and a Location+ of 107. This Location+ is 7th-highest in the league out of 122 pitchers with 100+ innings pitched this season. Schwellenbach has a chase rate that ranks in the 97th percentile among qualifying pitchers, as well as a strikeout rate in the 78th percentile, and a walk rate in the 94th percentile.
Schwellenbach has also done well to limit extremely hard contact. He ranks in the 49th percentile in hard hit rate, 72nd percentile in average exit velocity allowed, and 84th percentile in barrel rate allowed. He has a 42nd percentile ground ball rate this season as well.
This season Atlanta ranks 18th in wRC+ and 14th in wOBA. They are 12th in SLG and 8th in ISO as they have plenty of power, but rank 19th in OBP as they have the 9th-highest strikeout rate and a league average walk rate.
Atlanta leads the league in hard hit rate this season and ranks second in both barrel rate and average exit velocity. They also rank 22nd in ground ball rate as they are 11th in both line drive rate and fly ball rate.
Reds Betting Preview: Junis Enters in Strong Form
Jakob Junis will get the start for Cincinnati tonight. For the Reds and Brewers this season, Junis has mostly pitched out of the bullpen, with 22 appearances and just four starts. His last two outings have both been starts in which he completed five innings and allowed only one run across these two starts with eight strikeouts.
On the year Junis has a 2.73 ERA but a 4.15 xERA and 3.96 xFIP he has been fortunate in batted ball situations, with a BABIP of just .231 when he has never posted a figure below .294 in a season before. Junis ranks in the 23rd percentile in strikeout rate but 99th percentile in walk rate as he has issued a free pass just 3.3% of the time.
Junis is not a ground-ball pitcher, with only a 26th percentile ground ball rate. He also allows a decent amount of hard contact with a 17th percentile hard hit rate allowed, 32nd percentile barrel rate allowed, and 22nd percentile average exit velocity allowed.
Cincinnati ranks 25th in the league in wRC+ this season. They are 16th in wOBA, 18th in SLG, 12th in ISO, and 20th in OBP. The Reds rank 10th in walk rate but have the 7th-highest strikeout rate in baseball.
The Reds are just 28th in hard hit rate this season. They are also 25th in barrel rate and 29th in average exit velocity.
Braves-Reds Prediction, Betting Analysis
Schwellenbach is looking to be a potential star in the making with the impressive performance he has put forward so far this season. He looks to be a very good pitcher with great command that should have an easier matchup today against the Reds.
On the other side, Junis has been fortunate with batted ball luck this season and is now facing the team that hits the ball harder than just about anyone. Junis doesn’t possess the ability to take advantage of Atlanta’s weaknesses in the strikeout department and he doesn’t keep the ball on the ground, so I think the Braves may have a good day offensively against Junis.
My favorite way to play this is Atlanta -0.5 over the first five innings as they should have a lead halfway through this game with the advantage in both starting pitcher and offense.
Pick: Atlanta Braves F5 -0.5 (-110 at DraftKings) | Bet to -120
Moneyline
Cincinnati is 37-39 straight up both home and on the road this season.The Braves are 39-37 on the road as they have been a bit more successful when playing in front of their home crowd.
While the odds are longer, I still see value on the Braves to win this game outright. Outside of the other advantages mentioned above, Atlanta also has a much better bullpen. The Braves rank 3rd in bullpen ERA and 1st in bullpen xFIP. The Reds are 17th in both of these categories as Atlanta has the upper hand here as well.
Run Line (Spread)
The Reds have been a team to bet on this season as they are 83-69 against the spread overall. They are just 38-38 at home though as most of their ATS success has come away from Great American Ballpark. Atlanta is 69-82 ATS this season but 37-39 ATS on the road, where they have been better.
I love Atlanta however you can get them this game. At +110 I think that the Braves on the full game run line is a good bet as well. This is about as good of a matchup as you could hope for from every angle for Atlanta.
Over/Under
Reds’ home games have gone 37-33-6 to the under this season. The Braves have also been an under team at 87-56-8 to the under overall and 39-32-5 to the under on the road.
I don’t have a strong lean either way on the under. I believe Atlanta will have a good offensive day, but I also think Schwellenbach has a high probability of turning in a quality start, so I could see this total falling either direction.
Braves-Reds Betting Trends
- 74% of the bets and 80% of the money are on the Braves on the moneyline.
- 78% of the bets and 75% of the money are on the over.
- 77% of the bets and 75% of the money are on the Braves to cover the run line.
Braves Betting Trends
- Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games
- Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Braves are 37-39 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Braves' last 5 games
Reds Betting Trends
- Reds are 3-2 in their last 5 games
- Reds are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Reds' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 33 of Reds' 76 last games at home
Braves-Reds Key Injuries
Braves Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| 2B Ozzie Albies | Left wrist fracture (10-day IL; on rehab assignment) |
| 3B Austin Riley | Right hand fracture (10-day IL) |
| RHP Reynaldo Lopez | Right shoulder inflammation (15-day IL) |
Reds Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| RHP Hunter Greene | Right elbow soreness (15-day IL) |
| LHP Andrew Abbott | Left shoulder strain (15-day IL) |
| LHP Brandon Williamson | Left elbow strain (injured on Wednesday) |
Braves-Reds Weather Forecast
