Braves vs. Rockies odds (via FanDuel) for Saturday have the Braves as -194 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 10 (-115o / -105u). However, for my Braves vs. Rockies pick, I'll be looking at a different market as I see betting value on the run line.
Left-hander Max Fried takes the mound for Atlanta, while Colorado hands the ball to right-hander Cal Quantrill.
Below is my Braves vs. Rockies prediction.
Braves vs. Rockies Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -125 | 10 -115o / -105u | -194 |
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +104 | 10 -115o / -105u | +162 |
Braves vs Rockies Projected Starting Pitchers
| Max Fried | Stat | Cal Quantrill |
|---|---|---|
| 7-6 | W-L | 7-8 |
| 1.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 3.40 / 3.81 | ERA /xERA | 4.56 / 4.69 |
| 3.57 / 3.48 | FIP / xFIP | 4.90 / 4.62 |
| 1.20 | WHIP | 1.41 |
| 13.5% | K-BB% | 8.3% |
| 59% | GB% | 44.3% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 98 | Location+ | 97 |
Tony Sartori’s Braves vs Rockies Preview
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Braves Loaded Bullpen
While Fried has taken a small step back in 2024, his numbers are still strong. The Southpaw is 7-6 through 19 starts with a 3.40 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
His analytics are equally impressive as Fried ranks in the 85th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. This success is likely to continue against Colorado, a team Fried boasts a 2.22 ERA through four career starts against.
Following the left-hander is one of the league's best bullpens. This season, Atlanta's relief staff ranks in the top four in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
The Braves' hitting is where questions have arisen this year, but they are a still a power-hitting group that should thrive at Coors Field. Atlanta ranks in the top half of the league in SLG, OPS and home runs.
Furthermore, this lineup boasts a .262 BA, .393 SLG and .318 wOBA through 67 combined career plate appearances against Quantrill.
Colorado Rockies Betting Preview: Quantrill's Woes to Continue?
Speaking of Quantrill, the former first-round pick's best days are behind him. He is 7-8 with a fade-worthy 4.56 ERA and 1.41 WHIP through 23 starts this season.
His underlying metrics are even worse as the right-hander sports a 4.69 xERA and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate. These woes are likely to continue against the Braves, a team he is 0-2 against through three career starts with a 3.94 ERA.
Things will only go from bad to worse if Quantrill is chased early. The Rockies' bullpen is arguably the worst in baseball, ranking last in ERA, 28th in FIP and 27th in xFIP.
Meanwhile, run support is never guaranteed for this pitching staff, even at Coors Field. Colorado ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and stolen bases.
Through 52 combined career plate appearances against Fried, this current Rockies lineup possesses a mere .146 BA, .229 SLG and .199 wOBA.
Braves vs Rockies Prediction, Betting Analysis
Atlanta is clearly the superior team in this matchup from top-to-bottom. Fried outranks Quantrill in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, the Braves' bullpen outranks Colorado's in ERA, FIP and xFIP. Finally, Atlanta edges out the Rockies in SLG, OPS and home runs.
The only advantage Colorado possesses is home-field, but that doesn't worry me as the Braves' road win percentage surpasses the Rockies' home win percentage. I don't think that there is a ton of value in backing Atlanta to win at -194, but the run line grabs my interest at -125, due to all the aforementioned variables.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (-125 | Play to -130) |
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Moneyline
Pass.
I don't think this is a poor play, but I believe that there's more value in backing Atlanta's run line.
Run Line (Spread)
Bet the Braves (-1.5) on the run line at -125.
Over/Under
I'm going to pass on the over/under.
There are too many contradicting variables to attack this market. Fried is a strong pitcher and should quell a modest Rockies lineup, while Quantrill is untrustworthy against a power-hitting Atlanta lineup.
If I absolutely had to choose, I would lean toward the under because the total being in double digits is taking into account the Coors Field aspect, but I think that is over-adjusted since both Fried and Quantrill are groundball-heavy pitchers, which eliminates the altitude in Denver.
