The Atlanta Braves' offense woke up in a big way on Monday with a 10-6 thrashing of the Twins, and now this depleted lineup will look to keep its foot on the gas when it faces Simeon Woods Richardson on Tuesday.
Will Atlanta win an impressive ninth game in its last 11 around some unfortunate injury news, or will Minnesota's strong offense roar back here against Spencer Schwellenbach?
Let's cook up a same-game parlay for Braves vs Twins on Tuesday.
Kenny Ducey's Braves vs Twins MLB Parlay Picks for Tuesday
- Spencer Schwellenbach Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+112)
- Marcell Ozuna 2+ Total Bases (-120)
- Royce Lewis T0 Record A Hit (-220)
Parlay Odds: +475 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
We'll start with a leg that's somewhat hard to justify being "sharp" in Spencer Schwellenbach's strikeout total.
I'm very understanding of the somewhat fishy line that oddsmakers have set here. The right-hander has dazzled with a 28.2% strikeout rate this season and has struck out seven or more in his past six outings, but he's had several friendly matchups along the way and will now step to a Twins team that has been excellent at making contact over the last two weeks with a low 20.3% punchout rate.
It's not as if this will be an easy one for Schwellenbach, but he should get there. The last three starters who have faced Minnesota have recorded seven strikeouts apiece, and that's all the proof you need that an upper-tier strikeout arm like Schwellenbach can power past the strength of this lineup to hit this total.
Schwellenbach's whiff rate has spiked to a season-best 37.2% this month, which should work in his favor considering the Twins have been free-swingers and haven't taken many walks in the last 14 days. The four-seamer has been utilized more by Schwellenbach as it continues to generate more and more swings and misses, but his curveball has been what's led him to the biggest improvement in this category.
Minnesota has whiffed at the 12th-highest clip in the league on curveballs, which leads me to believe the rookie can once again rack up strikeouts and keep his run going.
If you're looking for an Atlanta bat to attack the middling Woods Richardson, look no further than Marcell Ozuna.
Woods Richardson has done a decent enough job of pitching to contact with an Expected Batting Average of .241 that's marginally better than the league average, but he's had issues in the power department with a .410 xSLG that's four points worse than average.
It would make a lot of sense considering he's been a fly-ball pitcher with his rate of contact in the air nearly eight points higher than average, and here in Minnesota — where Park Factors for home runs and doubles are high — he's going to be allowing some extra-base hits to a Braves team that loves to swat the ball into the air.
The Big Bear leads all Braves in total bases against fly-ball pitchers with 137 in 244 plate appearances — beating out the next-best Atlanta hitter by a firm margin of 39 — and in the split, he's slashing .327/.398/.631.
This is as friendly as matchups get for Ozuna, who has recorded 16 hits in his past 11 games, with four going for extra bases, and with a troubling 32.1% strikeout rate in the last two weeks, he'll be aided by a contact-oriented pitcher who hasn't compiled many punchouts.
The veteran should have a good chance of racking up multiple hits here if he doesn't go for extra bases in a glorious spot.
We could get cute with this last leg, considering the likes of Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner have been carrying this Minnesota offense over the last two weeks, but I'm fearful of targeting a bat in this Twins lineup with a bevy of strikeouts and walks against a "power" pitcher (as classified by Baseball-Reference) like Schwellenbach.
Against these power arms, there have been few better in this lineup than Royce Lewis. He's hitting .289 in the split and just had a five-game hitting streak snapped at the hands of Max Fried and Atlanta on Monday. While that run came to an end, the superstar slugger has now notably gone 10 games without a walk and has drawn a free pass in in just one his previous 16 games.
I like that, considering there's significant downside in taking a patient hitter to cash a hits or total bases prop, and the free-swinging Lewis, who has done well to limit strikeouts, should get his bat on the ball versus a hard strike-thrower like Schwellenbach and continue dominating against power pitchers.
Lewis is also hitting noticeably better at home, with his .319 average coming in a ridiculous 119 points higher than his clip on the road.
