The Atlanta Braves and MinnesotaTwins wrap their three-game interleague series on Wednesday night at Target Field. The Braves have won each of their first two matchups, including an extra-innings victory on Tuesday. First pitch for Wednesday is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on MLB Network for out-of-market viewers.
Atlanta is holding onto the last wild-card spot in the National League by three games entering Wednesday. The Braves trail the Phillies by six games in the NL East race, so the wild-card race will likely be their best postseason shot.
The Twins are in a tight postseason battle. They hold onto the final wild-card spot in the American League but are only 2 1/2 games out of the lead for the AL Central, battling with the Guardians and Royals.
Braves-Twins odds for Wednesday have the Braves as -135 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 7.5 (+105o / -125u). Let’s get into my preview for this series finale, which includes my Braves vs Twins prediction and pick on the first five innings (F5).
Braves vs Twins Prediction
- Braves vs Twins pick: Braves F5 -0.5 (-105; Bet to -115)
My Braves-Twins pick is on the Braves F5 spread at -0.5, where I see value at a line of -105. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Braves vs Twins Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-135 | 7.5 +105o / -125u | -1.5 +120 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+115 | 7.5 +105o / -125u | +1.5 -145 |
- Braves vs Twins Moneyline: Braves -135 | Twins +115
- Braves vs Twins Over/Under: 7.5
- Braves vs Twins Run Line: Braves -1.5 (+120) | Twins +1.5 (-145)
Probable Starters for Braves at Twins
| LHP Chris Sale (ATL) | Stat | RHP David Festa (MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 14-3 | W-L | 8-7 |
| 5.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 2.62 / 2.69 | ERA /xERA | 5.20 / 4.20 |
| 2.08 / 2.52 | FIP / xFIP | 4.24 / 3.53 |
| 1.02 | WHIP | 1.32 |
| 27.1% | K-BB% | 21.0% |
| 45.7% | GB% | 30.0% |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 104 | Location+ | 101 |
Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins Predictions, Previews
Braves Betting Preview: Sale Makes NL Cy Young Push
Chris Sale is currently the odds-on favorite to be the National League Cy Young Award winner in his first season in Atlanta.
The left-handed veteran ranks in the 86th percentile among qualified pitchers in whiff rate. He ranks in the 95th percentile in strikeout rate, 85th percentile in walk rate, and 74th percentile in ground ball rate.
Not only has Sale been elite at missing bats and avoiding walks, but he also limits hard contact. Sale ranks in the 97th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, 90th percentile in barrel rate allowed, and 95th percentile in average exit velocity allowed.
The Braves rank 16th in wRC+ and 13th in wOBA this season offensively. They also rank sixth in ISO and 12th in SLG, although only 18th in wOBA. Atlanta strikes out at the eighth-highest rate, which has hampered them overall.
When the Braves hit the ball, they hit it harder than just about anyone in the National League. They rank second in hard-hit rate, second in barrel rate, and second in average exit velocity. They also excel at keeping the ball off the ground, with a bottom-10 ground-ball rate and above-average fly-ball and line-drive rates.
Over the past 30 days, Atlanta ranks seventh in wRC+, seventh in wOBA, sixth in SLG, and eighth in OBP. Their strikeout rate has remained the same over that stretch, but their walk rate has improved to 9.1%, which ranks seventh during that stretch.
Twins Betting Preview: Can Festa Keep The Ball On the Ground?
David Festa is taking the mound for Minnesota on Wednesday.
The 24-year-old is the team's No. 6 overall prospect and No. 87 overall in the MLB Pipeline rankings. Through 36 1/3 innings in his big league career, Festa has a 5.20 ERA, 4.20 xERA, and 1.32 WHIP.
Festa has posted a 100 Stuff+ and a 101 Location+ so far, which is just above average. He’s somewhat of a typical fastball-slider pitcher, although he has a changeup that hasn’t been very good to this point. This has helped Festa post a 27.4% whiff rate and 28% strikeout rate, ranking well above average.
Festa also walks batters less than average, but he has allowed a 9.9% barrel rate. His ground ball rate is only 30.7%, as batters can often elevate his pitches. Despite the elevation these batted balls are getting, he has been better than average in both hard-hit rate allowed and average exit velocity allowed, so if he can keep the ball on the ground, he may be okay.
Minnesota’s offense has been great this year. The Twins rank fifth in wRC+, sixth in wOBA, sixth in SLG, and eighth in OBP. They also don't strike out or walk much, putting most of their balls in play.
The Twins rank 18th in hard-hit rate, 11th in barrel rate, and 15th in exit velocity this season. They also have the second-lowest ground ball rate in the league and — thus — the second-highest fly ball rate.
It's much of the same against southpaws, as Minnesota ranks seventh in wRC+ and eighth in wOBA. This hasn’t been a weakness for them, so it’s not a point of concern for me in this matchup.
Braves vs Twins Prediction, Betting Analysis
There isn’t anyone pitching at the same level as Sale this season. He has been lights-out in every facet, and I’m not worried about him in any matchup.
Minnesota’s offense has been outstanding this season by most metrics, but Sale is an elite pitcher, and I’d give him an edge.
Festa has flashed impressive strikeout numbers thus far, but his overall Stuff+ numbers haven’t been great. He also has limited hard contact, but his low ground ball rate and high barrel rate have spelled trouble. Festa may be a solid pitcher, but I don’t like him taking on this Braves team — Atlanta elevates too many balls, and Festa is vulnerable to hard-hit fly balls.
I'm betting the Braves have a lead after the first five innings on Wednesday. I think Sale will turn in another good start, and Atlanta may be able to barrel up Festa and make him pay.
Pick: Atlanta Braves F5 -0.5 (-105, DraftKings | Play to F5 -0.5 (-115)
Moneyline
Minnesota is 37-28 at home this season, while Atlanta is 36-32 on the road.
I’m more than comfortable laying just -135 with Chris Sale on the moneyline, even against an offense as good as Minnesota’s. Festa has not yet shown me enough, and his tendencies look like a bad match for facing Atlanta’s offense.
Run Line (Spread)
Neither of these teams has been good against the spread this season. The Braves are 59-73 ATS, while Minnesota is 61-71. The Twins are only 28-37 at home this season, as well.
I’d still prefer the F5 market, but if I were to take a side on the run line of this game, I’d take Chris Sale and the Braves at -1.5 (+130), as I believe they have a solid chance to win this game by multiple runs.
Over/Under
Overs this season are 33-28-4 in Target Field and have hit the last two nights. Twins games overall are 68-60-4 to the over this season, but Atlanta overs are just 48-76-8.
Chris Sale is pitching, but the total in this game is only 7.5, featuring an unproven rookie pitcher on one side. Both of these offenses are more than capable of putting runs on the board. They have shown this over the last two nights, as there have been 16 and 14 total runs in those two games, respectively.
I don’t have a play on the total for this game, but I would slightly lean towards the over in the scenario that Sale isn’t perfect against this strong Minnesota offense.
