The Atlanta Braves (73-61) and Philadelphia Phillies (79-55) will face off tonight at Citizens Bank Park. This will be the second game of a four-game series between the NL East rivals, as the Phillies took Game 1 last night by a score of 5-4.
Philadelphia currently leads the division by six games over the Braves. Atlanta also has a three-game lead in the wild card race, as they try to hold onto the final NL postseason spot. This series may go a long way in deciding which of these teams wins the division or maybe even qualifies for the postseason at all.
The Phillies are currently listed as -135 moneyline favorites tonight in a game, with an over/under of eight runs (-105/-115). Let’s take a look at my Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions for Friday, August 30.
Braves vs Phillies Prediction
- Braves vs Phillies pick: Braves First Five Innings Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-135)
My Braves-Phillies pick is on the Braves F5 team total over 1.5 runs, where I see value at a line of -135. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Braves vs Phillies Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+118 | 8 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -182 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-138 | 8 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +150 |
Braves vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Reynaldo Lopez (ATL) | Stat | LHP Ranger Suarez (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-4 | W-L | 11-5 |
| 3.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.5 |
| 2.02 / 4.23 | ERA /xERA | 2.82/ 3.15 |
| 2.99 / 3.72 | FIP / xFIP | 2.94 / 3.09 |
| 1.18 | WHIP | 1.06 |
| 16.6% | K-BB% | 18.8% |
| 39.2% | GB% | 52.4% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 83 |
| 102 | Location+ | 104 |
Cody Goggin's Braves vs Phillies Preview
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Reynaldo Lopez Due for Regression?
Taking the mound for Atlanta tonight is right-hander Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez is in the midst of the best season of his career. He has a 2.02 ERA and 119 strikeouts over 115 ⅔ innings pitched this year. However, Lopez has a 4.23 xERA, 3.72 xFIP, and 3.92 SIERA, which all suggest that he has been a bit on the luckier side.
Lopez ranks in the 64th percentile in whiff rate, 69th percentile in strikeout rate, and 38th percentile in walk rate among qualified pitchers. He has struggled a little bit with walks, but his batted ball metrics are where he has gotten off easy.
Lopez ranks in the 25th percentile in barrel rate allowed, 28th percentile in hard hit rate allowed, and 24th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. Opposing batters have a batting average of .224 this year against Lopez while his xBA is actually .254.
This season, the Braves rank 16th in wRC+ with a mark of 99, just slightly below league average. They are 13th in wOBA, 12th in SLG, and 20th in OBP. The Braves also rank 19th in walk rate and seventh in strikeout rate, as they have below average plate discipline.
Atlanta ranks second in hard hit rate, second in barrel rate, and second in exit velocity this season. They also have the ninth-lowest strikeout rate and rank 12th in fly ball rate. The Braves are ninth in wRC+ against lefties this season and fifth in wOBA. They still strike out plenty from this side of the plate, but are 14th in walk rate against lefties and rank third in ISO against southpaws.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Bad Matchup for Ranger Suarez
Ranger Suarez will take the mound for the Phillies tonight and like Lopez, is also having a fantastic season. Suarez has a 2.82 ERA over 123⅓ innings pitched this season. The left-hander has a 3.15 xERA, 3.09 xFIP and 3.38 SIERA in 2023.
Suarez isn’t a hard-thrower by any means, ranking in the 12th percentile in fastball velocity among qualified pitchers. However, he throws his sinker 32% of the time and his curveball 20% of the time, resulting in a 53.5% ground ball rate (92nd percentile).
Suarez ranks in just the 25th percentile in whiff rate but the 62nd percentile in strikeout rate. He has avoided walks well this season, ranking in the 85th percentile in walk rate allowed.
The left-hander’s pitch mix has resulted in him allowing very little hard contact. He ranks in the 78th percentile in hard hit rate allowed, 90th percentile in barrel rate allowed, and 85th percentile in average exit velocity allowed.
The Philadelphia offense ranks ninth in wRC+ this season and seventh in wOBA. They are eighth in SLG, fifth in OBP, 12th in ISO, and fourth in BABIP. They strike out slightly less than league average and walk at the ninth-highest rate.
Philadelphia ranks 10th in hard hit rate, 19th in barrel rate, and 15th in average exit velocity. They hit the ball on the ground at the 8th-highest rate in MLB, which explains their lower barrel rates.
My Braves vs Phillies Prediction: Atlanta First Five Innings Over
Ranger Suarez is having a great season and is a good pitcher, but I think that Atlanta’s offense may pose a mismatch for him. Their strikeout concerns won’t be an issue against Suarez and they keep the ball off the ground most of the time, which won’t play to Suarez’s strengths. Atlanta also is one of the better teams in the National League at hitting left-handed pitching, so I could see them having success in this matchup.
I’m unsure how the matchup will go on the other side, but I think that the Phillies can have an average day offensively. This may be enough to push an over but my favorite way to play this game is on the Braves’ offense.
I’ll be taking the Braves first five innings team total over 1.5 runs at -135, as I believe there is some value to be had early in this matchup, despite Suarez being a strong starting pitcher.
Moneyline
The Phillies have been a much better team at home this season. Philadelphia is 45-24 from their friendly confines compared to 34-31 away from home. The Braves are 37-33 straight up on the road.
For the reasons mentioned above, I do lean towards taking the Braves as underdogs in this matchup as I think the odds should be closer to even money. At +120 I’ll take Atlanta in what should be a tight game.
Run Line (Spread)
The Phillies are 34-35 ATS at home this season while the Braves are 34-36 ATS on the road. Both of these teams have losing records against the spread on the year.
As I believe this will be a close game, I would lean towards taking the Braves on the run line at +1.5 runs. However, I don’t believe there is much value to be had at -185 and would rather play them on the moneyline if you’re going to take them at all.
Over/Under
Both of these teams have been better plays on the under this season, but the Braves have been much more likely to go over on the road compared to at home, as they are 29-36-5 to the over on the road and 20-41-3 to the over at home. Overs are 30-35-4 at Citizens Bank Park this season.
I like the over at 8 runs in this matchup. Both offenses project to have at least average days against these two pitchers, who have both had success to this point in the season.
Braves vs Phillies Betting Trends
- 78% of the bets and 76% of the money are on the Phillies on the moneyline.
- 59% of the bets and 62% of the money are on the over.
- 71% of the bets and 62% of the money are on the Phillies to cover the run line.
Braves Betting Trends
- Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games
- Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Braves are 34-36 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of the Braves' last 5 games
- the totals have gone OVER in 20 of Braves' last 64 games at home
Phillies Betting Trends
- Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 games
- Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Phillies are 30-35 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of the Phillies' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 30 of the Phillies' last 69 games at home
Braves vs Phillies Weather Forecast for Friday
