The Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres play the series finale of their four-game series on Sunday Night Baseball on March 30. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Braves vs Padres odds (via BetMGM) have the Padres as -130 moneyline favorites and Braves as +110 underdogs. The over/under is 8 total runs (-105o/ -115u). The Braves are -210 to cover the run line (+1.5) and the Padres are +170 to cover the spread (-1.5).
Find my Braves vs Padres prediction and pick in my Sunday Night Baseball preview. You can also find injury reports (including the status of Manny Machado), starting lineups, public betting trends, and the weather forecast.
Braves vs Padres Predictions
- Braves vs Padres pick: Braves Moneyline +110 (Play to -103)
My Braves vs Padres best bet is on the Braves moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Braves vs Padres Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Best Bet
| Atlanta Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 8 -105o / -115u | +110 |
| San Diego Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 8 -105o / -115u | -130 |
- Braves vs Padres Moneyline: Braves +110, Padres -130
- Braves vs Padres Total: 8 (-105o / -115u)
- Braves vs Padres Spread: Braves +1.5 (-210), Padres -1.5 (+170)
- Braves vs Padres Best Bet: Braves Moneyline +110
Braves vs Padres Preview, Prediction
Braves Betting Preview
Braves Starting Lineup
- Jurickson Profar LF
- Austin Riley 3B
- Matt Olson 1B
- Marcell Ozuna DH
- Ozzie Albies 2B
- Michael Harris II CF
- Orlando Arcia SS
- Jarred Kelenic RF
- Chadwick Tromp C
- Starting pitcher: AJ Smith-Shawver
AJ Smith-Shawver earned the final spot in the Braves rotation with his strong form in Spring Training, but he will have the opportunity to work in their fourth game of the season as Spencer Strider is currently on the IL.
Smith-Shawver posted a 3.94 ERA across 16 innings this spring, and displayed improved command, striking out 11.3 batters per nine and 4.0 K/BB. He has always had the stuff to pitch at the MLB level (105 Stuff+ rating in 2024), but command has been an issue, and it has also been speculated that he has tipped pitches at times.
In 29 2/3 innings of regular-season work at the MLB level, Smith-Shawver has pitched to an ERA of 3.64 and holds a WHIP of 1.11. He last pitched against the Padres in the Wild Card series last October — he had a disastrous outing, allowing three earned runs while recording just four outs.
It's been a slow start to the season offensively for the Braves, as they have recorded just seven runs in the first three games of this series, batting .177 with a .288 OBP.
With Ronald Acuna Jr. still on the injured list, the lineup certainly looks less formidable right now, but should still prove to be considerably better than an average unit in the meantime.
Austin Riley is healthy after being limited to just 110 games last season with a hand injury; he should be a safe bet for 30 home runs as he enters his true prime at age 27.
Matt Olson had a surprisingly poor 2024 campaign overall, but slugged .530 after the All-Star break and will likely bounce back with a more productive season.
Marcell Ozuna is another likely candidate for 30 home runs after a monster 2024 campaign that helped the shorthanded Braves sneak into the playoffs.
Jurickson Profar could prove to be a savvy offseason addition from one of baseball's sharpest front offices. GM Alex Anthopoulos is obviously a believer that Profar's improved production last season after some swing adjustments can continue this season, offering the 31-year-old a three-year, $42 million deal.
Padres Betting Preview
Padres Starting Lineup
- Fernando Tatis Jr. RF
- Luis Arraez 1B
- Manny Machado 3B
- Jackson Merrill CF
- Jake Cronenworth 2B
- Xander Bogaerts SS
- Gavin Sheets DH
- Jason Heyward LF
- Elias Díaz C
- Starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta
The Padres added some stability to the back end of their rotation late in the offseason, as they signed Nick Pivetta to a four-year, $55 million contract with the expectation he would slot behind Dylan Cease, Michael King and Yu Darvish in a solid rotation.
Pivetta held a 4.14 ERA and 3.51 xERA across 145 2/3 innings of work last season with the Boston Red Sox and is projected for comparable results in 2025. The consensus from the major projection systems is that Pivetta will hold an ERA just north of 3.90 this season.
Pivetta was solid in 13 1/3 innings of work in Spring Training, pitching to an ERA of 3.38 with a WHIP of 0.975.
Losing the production Profar offered last season hurts, but the heart of the Padres order should remain quite dominant this season.
Fernando Tatis Jr. was a trendy NL MVP bet entering the season. When healthy, he has consistently been one of the game's biggest difference makers. He's gotten off to a strong start in this series, slugging .667 across his first 12 ABs with one HR.
Jackson Merrill looks poised to build on his monster rookie season, which resulted in a controversial second-place finish in the NL ROY vote. He holds an OPS of 1.101 in this series and will be a tough out for Pivetta, given his .891 OPS versus righties last season.
Manny Machado exited Saturday's game with calf tightness and is expected to be sidelined in this matchup.
Braves vs Padres Moneyline Prediction
While the Braves have not been at their best early in this series, their lineup still projects to be among the best in baseball and will provide a tough matchup for Pivetta.
Smith-Shawver could be a candidate for a huge breakout campaign this season, as he has the arsenal to be a far better than average pitcher at the big league level.
Some bettors may feel more comfortable waiting to see how his initial few outings go before betting on his games, but it's also possible prices like we see in this matchup may not exist for long.
At +102 on the moneyline, I see value backing the Braves to earn their first win of the season, and get moving in the right direction before they head to Los Angeles for a series with the Dodgers.
Pick: Braves Moneyline +102 (Play to -103)
Moneyline
As noted, I see value backing the Braves to win this matchup at +102.
Run Line (Spread)
Betting the Braves to cover the reverse run line at +155 could be a strong option, as their high-powered offense could be due for a massive performance.
Smith-Shawver should be viewed as a fairly volatile starter for now, who could be capable of an excellent outing or a disastrous one.
Over/Under
Betting the game to go under 8 total runs would be my lean in terms of a total.
As illustrated, I'm currently banking on Smith-Shawver being an above-average starter this season, but Pivetta is a quality arm in his own right, and Petco Park should offer pitcher-friendly conditions in tonight's matchup.
Braves vs Padres Betting Trends
Braves vs Padres Injuries
Braves Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| OF Ronald Acuna Jr. | Left ACL (10-day IL) |
| C Sean Murphy | Cracked rib (10-day IL) |
| RHP Spencer Strider | Right elbow (15-day IL) |
| INF Nacho Alvarez Jr. | Left wrist (10-day IL) |
Padres Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| 3B Manny Machado | Right calf (in starting lineup) |
| RHP Yu Darvish | Right elbow (15-day IL) |
| RHP Matt Waldron | Oblique strain (15-day IL) |
| RHP Jhony Brito | Right forearm (15-day IL) |
