It wasn’t easy, but the Atlanta Braves (89-73) found a way to crash the MLB playoffs and set up a Wild Card Series date with the San Diego Padres (93-69) at Petco Park on Tuesday night. First pitch for Wild Card Game 1 is set for 8:38 p.m. ET at Petco Park. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Michael King will start for the Padres while the Braves will hand the ball to AJ Smith-Shawver, who has only pitched 4 1/3 innings in the big leagues this season.
Find my Braves vs Padres prediction for Game 1 on Tuesday, October 1 below.
Editor's Note: This Braves-Padres preview was published before Atlanta announced AJ Smith-Shawver as its Game 1 starter.
Braves vs Padres Prediction
- Braves vs Padres pick: Braves First Five Innings +0.5 (+100 | Play to -110)
My Padres vs Braves best bet for Wild Card Game 1 is on Braves First Five Innings (F5) +0.5, where I see value at +100. The best line is available at FanDuel — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Braves vs Padres Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+150 | 7 -122o / +102u | +1.5 -155 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-180 | 7 -122u / +102u | -1.5 +130 |
Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) | Stat | RHP Michael King (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 13-9 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.9 |
| 0.00 / 2.77 | ERA /xERA | 2.95/3.54 |
| 2.71 / 5.15 | FIP / xFIP | 3.33/3.50 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 1.19 |
| 11.1% | K-BB% | 19.0% |
| 25% | GB% | 41.5% |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 99 | Location+ | 102 |
Kenny Ducey’s Braves vs Padres Preview
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview
The Braves were dealt some tough news on Monday when Chris Sale was scratched with back spasms, an injury that will keep him out for the duration of their Wild Card series against the Padres.
That leaves Atlanta's pitching situation in a state of flux, considering its top arms worked recently as the team made a final push to get into the postseason. Ian Anderson, who hasn't pitched in the big leagues since 2022, A.J. Smith-Shawver and Bryce Elder are all being considered for this start, which doesn't bode very well for the Braves' chances in Game 1.
It could very well be Anderson to take the ball here. Though the latter two have pitched a bit more recently than Anderson, who last pitched on Sept. 18, none of the three have worked in over a week. Anderson performed the best of these options in September, pitching to a 3.12 ERA in three outings with some unsavory walk numbers next to a steady flow of strikeouts. After some brief struggles early on in his Triple-A stint, he's settled in nicely.
Anderson is working his way back to the big leagues after undergoing Tommy John surgery over a year ago but has a 4-0 postseason record with a 1.26 ERA in eight appearances. Neither Elder or Smith-Shawver have proven much at the big-league level this season.
Regardless of who starts, the Braves will like their chances after finishing the final two weeks of the season with the second-best wRC+ in baseball and a robust .219 Isolated Power. Though Atlanta's marks in the strikeout and walk departments remain suspect, it's made some marginal improvements in limiting punchouts and has hit 40 points better than its season average of .243 over the last 14 days.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
Michael King has been humming right along after a slow start to his first full season in the rotation, pitching to a splendid 2.03 ERA since the end of June over 14 starts. His walk numbers have stabilized after a rocky first month, and he's seen an influx of ground balls over the last three months behind his sinker. There are just a few troubling trends developing beneath the surface, though.
It would have been impossible for King to maintain the incredible .178 Expected Batting Average he produced in July. That number corrected a bit to .216 in August before shooting up to .249 in September, when hitters put up a .299 xBA on his sinker. His strikeout rate has also begun to dip down over the past two months, coming in at 25.5% in September. He's still sporting an Expected Slugging that's well better than average, though. That will present a problem if the Braves continue hitting for contact the same way they've done over the last two weeks and should really put the onus on this offense to continue producing.
It was a great month for the Padres, who continue to be one of the best teams in baseball at avoiding strikeouts, but they've still been incredibly trigger-happy at the plate with a poor 6.8% walk rate in the last two weeks and a 26th-ranked 7.5% clip for the season.
San Diego's .191 Isolated Power over the last 14 days has been the biggest reason why it has been able to win ballgames. With a contact-oriented approach, though, a .232 average over this span has to be particularly concerning considering it's hit .263 this year to lead the league.
Braves vs Padres Prediction
While we're not quite sure who will pitch here for the Braves, we do know that all three of their options have struggled to avoid walks. That should present an immediate edge, considering the impatient Padres have shown no interest in drawing free passes this year. Also, Anderson and Elder pitched to ground balls in the minors, so the Padres — ranked 11th in OPS to ground-ballers and second against fly-ballers — could have issues.
On the flip side, the Braves have been stellar in terms of hitting for average over the last two weeks. While they may own some unsavory numbers against sinkers and changeups in the second half of the season, I think this matchup is a good one. King's strikeout rate is on its way down as the progressive fatigue of a first full season as a starter sets in.
Both bullpens sit inside the top 10 of baseball this month, so it's probably best to focus in on the start of this game. I think Anderson, if he does get the ball, should stand a good chance here with the Padres swinging early in counts, and he'll have the more stable of the two offenses behind him.
With his defense sitting fifth in Outs Above Average in September and plenty of ground balls heading into play, Anderson should keep the Braves at least level to start. I'd hesitate to back Atlanta should Smith-Shawver take the ball, so you may want to wait on an announcement from Atlanta. This is the way I'd like to go, though.
Pick: Braves First Five Innings +0.5 (+100 at FanDuel)
Moneyline
The Padres opened as -162 favorites here, quickly shooting up near -145 before some uncertainty in the pitching matchup caused the line to steadily drift back towards San Diego.
We're tracking some sharp action hitting the visitors.
Run Line (Spread)
The Braves have been underdogs just 11 times since the middle of August, but over that stretch they're 9-2 to the run line in those games. The Padres, meanwhile, are just 40-57 against the spread as favorites this year.
Over/Under
The total opened at eight runs, but its stay there was a brief eight minutes before the line moved to seven. We've seen some steady action hitting the over here, with sharp money heading that way.
Braves vs Padres Betting Trends
Braves Betting Trends
- Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Braves are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Braves are 40-41 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 25 of Braves' 81 last games at home
Padres Betting Trends
- Padres are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Padres are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Padres are 47-33 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Padres' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 44 of Padres' 80 last games at home
