The Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants begin a highly significant four-game series on Monday night at Oracle Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on Bally Sports South and NBC Sports Bay Area.
The stage is set for an exciting marquee pitching matchup between Chris Sale of the Braves and Blake Snell of the Giants. Snell, of course, took home the NL Cy Young Award last season as a member of the Padres while Sale is this season's betting favorite, currently listed with +100 odds on DraftKings.
After a shocking collapse on Sunday, the Braves own just a 1 1/2-game lead over the Giants for the final NL wild-card spot. The stakes could not be higher in this NL showdown, so let's get into my Braves vs Giants prediction.
Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-108 | 6.5 -104o / -118u | -1.5 +162 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-108 | 6.5 -104o / -118u | +1.5 -196 |
Braves vs Giants odds for Monday have the moneyline as a pick'em (-108/-108) with an over/under of 6.5 (-104o / -118u). Oddsmakers expect runs to be a premium on Monday night given Sale and Snell are on the hill. On the run line, the Braves are +162 to cover -1.5 while the Giants are -196 to cover +1.5.
Braves-Giants Projected Starting Pitchers: Sale vs Snell
| LHP Chris Sale (ATL) | Stat | LHP Blake Snell (SFG) |
|---|---|---|
| 13-3 | W-L | 1-3 |
| 4.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 2.75/2.65 | ERA /xERA | 4.31/2.73 |
| 2.25/2.60 | FIP / xFIP | 3.11/3.39 |
| 1.00 | WHIP | 1.10 |
| 26.7% | K-BB% | 21.6% |
| 47% | GB% | 42.2% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 118 |
| 104 | Location+ | 98 |
Weather Report for Braves at Giants
Nicholas Martin's Braves vs Giants Prediction & Preview
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Braves Teetering
After blowing an 8-2 lead in Sunday'’s game, the Braves lost and now hold a 61.7% chance of making the playoffs (FanGraphs). Recent losses to the Colorado Rockies have negatively impacted the Braves' standings and confidence.
There is plenty of time to right the ship, but the chances of a shocking playoff miss are far greater than anybody expected.
That makes this an excellent time for a start from Sale, who is still the NL Cy Young favorite, having pitched to a 2.75 ERA and accumulated 4.4 WAR this season. Sale was not at his best in his last start against the Milwaukee Brewers, as he allowed a season-high nine hits over just 4 2/3 innings.
Since the start of July, Sale's form has remained fairly consistent with the rest of his campaign. He pitched to a 2.68 ERA and 2.85 xFIP across 34 innings and six starts, striking out 33% of batters while allowing a .230 average against.
Sale is allowing a .208 SLG on non-fastballs this season, inducing a 43% miss rate.
While Sale still looks rock-solid and could quickly work seven innings here, Atlanta's bullpen does look concerning. Over the last month, Braves relievers have pitched to an ERA of 4.95, and the unit is a little taxed coming out of a three-game set at Coors Field.
The Braves rank 19th in wRC+ against southpaws since the All-Star break (105), posting the second-highest strikeout rate (32%). Across the season, they rank 11th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching (108).
San Francisco Giants Betting Preview: On A Tear
The Giants enter this matchup amid a 12-4 tear, putting them back into the playoff conversation.
They may not be an easy out if they get there either, given the way that Snell, Logan Webb, and Robbie Ray have pitched lately.
Since the start of July, Snell has tossed 39 innings with a 1.15 ERA, a 2.87 xFIP, a .137 xBA allowed, and an 18% hard-hit rate allowed.
The Giants offense has been impressive, especially against left-handed pitching, ranking fourth in wRC+ (119) and sixth in hard-hit rate (33%) against the side. They’ve posted a 136 wRC+ and .843 OPS against lefties since the All-Star break. Matt Chapman has been a key contributor, leading the team in home runs and RBIs, and his recent batting achievements have bolstered the Giants' offensive threats.
Braves vs Giants Prediction: Giants Moneyline
It feels crazy to think there is a case to fade the Cy Young favorite in a pick-em, but I see value on the Giants Moneyline.
Since the start of July, Snell has pitched to a superior ERA and features comparably strong underlying results to Sale. It's probably not right to argue that Snell offers an edge over Sale, but he doesn't need to for the Giants to have a good chance to take this critical matchup.
The Giants are a top-five offense against left-handed pitching and have remained red-hot in that split. Their bullpen has also been in better form than the Braves and should offer somewhat of an edge in the few innings the starters are out of this matchup.
At anything better than -115, I see value in backing Snell and the Giants to take this one.
Pick: Giants Moneyline (-110, Bet365) | Play to Moneyline (-115)
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Moneyline History
| Giants | Braves | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 61-58 | 61-55 |
| Home | 35-23 | 32-26 |
| Away | 26-35 | 29-29 |
| Favorite | 36-26 | 54-44 |
| Underdog | 24-31 | 7-11 |
Run Line (Spread) History
| Giants | Braves | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 55-64 | 50-66 |
| Home | 27-31 | 23-35 |
| Away | 28-33 | 27-31 |
| Favorite | 26-36 | 43-55 |
| Underdog | 28-27 | 7-11 |
Total (Over/Under) History
| Giants | Braves | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 62-54-3 | 43-65-8 |
| Home | 26-31-1 | 20-35-3 |
| Away | 36-23-2 | 23-30-5 |
| Favorite | 25-36-1 | 36-55-7 |
| Underdog | 36-17-2 | 7-10-1 |
