The Toronto Blue Jays and Atlanta Braves open up a three-game series on Monday night at Rogers Centre. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Sportsnet and FanDuel Sports.
It's been an ugly start to the season for the Braves, who, based on preseason expectations, are the most underachieving team in baseball at 4-11. While Atlanta has not yet found its stride, it is still a slight favorite in Monday's matchup as Grant Holmes faces off against Easton Lucas.
Find my MLB betting preview and Braves vs Blue Jays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Braves vs Blue Jays Prediction
- Braves vs Blue Jays picks: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline +100 (Bet365, Play to -110)
My Braves vs Blue Jays best bet is the Blue Jays moneyline at +100. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Braves vs Blue Jays Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 9 -120o / 100u | -118 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 9 -120o / 100u | -102 |
Braves vs Blue Jays Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Grant Holmes (ATL) | Stat | LHP Easton Lucas (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 2-0 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 4.00 / 5.92 | ERA /xERA | 0.00 / 1.83 |
| 4.66 / 4.66 | FIP / xFIP | 1.73 / 2.99 |
| 1.67 | WHIP | 0.68 |
| 7.3% | K-BB% | 21.1% |
| 31.8% | GB% | 37.5% |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 95 | Location+ | 95 |
Nick Martin’s Braves vs Blue Jays Preview
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Waiting for Acuna Jr. and Strider to Return
The Braves have quickly dug a fairly significant hole in an NL East division that figures to be a gauntlet. When Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider return to the lineup, Atlanta will have the potential to win games at a high rate, but, in the meantime, it's important to avoid digging too deep of a hole.
Betting on the Braves in each of their 15 games would have yielded a -52.2% ROI, which is the worst mark in baseball by a wide margin. While that is not necessarily betable information, it does illustrate how greatly Brian Snitker's side has underachieved.
Considering the betting prices in this matchup, oddsmakers are saying they view Holmes as the superior starter. He has pitched to a 4.00 ERA over his initial nine innings, which have all come against high-powered offenses — the San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies.
The consensus from the major projection systems is that Holmes will hold an ERA close to 4.20 this season. Throughout his small sample versus three of baseball's best offenses, he holds an xERA of 5.92 and an xFIP of 4.65. So far in 2025, he's pitched to a Stuff+ rating of 92 and a Location+ of 95, which are both down compared to last season.
The Braves have struggled offensively in 2025, with an offensive wRC+ of 92. They have struck out 26.1% of the time, which is the second-highest mark in MLB. Despite a fairly high BABIP of .289, they still hit only .227.
Atlanta has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching this season. It holds a 26th-ranked wRC+ of 54 and has hit just .185.
The Braves have plenty of proven batters in the lineup who should find better results moving forward, but aside from that, it is hard to argue that the Braves are due for better results at the plate right now.
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview: Offense Looking Strong
While the Braves' offensive process suggests they have been more bad than unlucky, the Jays have been quite good offensively and, if anything, appear to be due for positive regression.
The Jays have averaged just 3.94 runs scored per game this season. They hold a ninth-ranked wRC+ of 111 and a fifth-best BB/K ratio of 0.50. They already have 198 PAs with runners in scoring position, which is the fourth most in baseball, but hold a 23rd-ranked OPS in those at-bats.
The Blue Jays held a 21st-ranked OPS with RISP in 2024, so their poor results in that key area of the game are nothing new. However, if they can start to find better results, their offense would be quite formidable.
Pitching has certainly not been an issue for the Blue Jays this season, as they currently hold a sixth-best team ERA of 3.37. Their pitching staff also has a WHIP of 1.14, allowing a .214 batting average.
Toronto's pitching staff has once again been aided by tremendous defensive play, which isn't surprising based off of last season. The Jays ranked first in Defensive Runs Saved last season and are fifth in that statistic this season, despite the fact that 2024 Gold-Glover Daulton Varsho has yet to play.
Waiver-pickup Easton Lucas has been a pleasant surprise for the Blue Jays, as he is yet to allow an earned run in his first 10 1/3 innings. He holds an xERA of 1.83 and an xFIP of 2.99 and a K-BB% of 21.1. Pitch metrics suggest Lucas could be a competent arm the rest of the way, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 101 and a Pitching+ rating of 95.
Braves vs Blue Jays Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Braves' lineup has the talent to start producing better results at the plate, but their offensive process looks quite terrible. They have been particularly unproductive against lefties, which suggests Lucas should have a good chance of managing another solid outing.
The Jays' offense looks due for better results, as they have shown strong plate discipline up and down the lineup while hitting .267. If they start to find more success with men on base, it is going to lead to some lofty offensive outputs, so long as the rest of the process holds true.
Holmes looks to be a comparable starter to Lucas right now and is backed by a team that does not field as well as the Jays. Both bullpens figure to be quite strong this season, and neither team should hold a notable edge on that front in this matchup.
With those thoughts in mind, it's hard to see why the Blue Jays deserve to be a home underdog. I see value in betting Toronto down to -110.
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline +100 (Play to -110)
Moneyline
As outlined, betting the Blue Jays to win at +100 is my favorite play from this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
If I were to bet the run-line, my favorite option would be to bet the Blue Jays to cover the reverse run-line at +165. This would likely yield a comparable EV to backing them to win straight up.
Over/Under
Betting the game to go over 9 runs would be my lean. Both Lucas and Holmes will likely be slightly below-average starters this season, and both offenses could be due to produce runs at a higher rate moving forward.
Braves vs Blue Jays Parlay
- Blue Jays Moneyline
- Grant Holmes Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
- Grant Holmes Under 4.5 Strikeouts
Parlay odds: +315 (DraftKings)
The Blue Jays have struck out just 17.7% of the time against right-handed pitching this season, the best mark in baseball. Holmes has walked batters at a high rate and features very mediocre chase and whiff rates.
The Jays should be well situated for a strong offensive day, and if they hit Holmes the way I'm expecting, we should have a decent chance of hitting all three legs of our parlay.
