The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Baltimore Orioles on April 7, 2025. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ARID.
Zac Gallen will take the hill for the home side versus Zach Eflin and while there are more similarities between the two than just their names, one of them may be bailed out by a somewhat flat offense.
Find my MLB betting preview and Orioles vs Diamondbacks prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Orioles vs Diamondbacks Pick and Prediction
- Orioles vs Diamondbacks pick: Diamondbacks ML (-122) | Play to -130
My Orioles vs Diamondbacks prediction is on the Diamondbacks moneyline (-122). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -198 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +105 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -125 |
Kenny Ducey's Orioles vs Diamondbacks Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Eflin Still Going Strong
It seems that Zach Eflin just gets better with age. After navigating six seasons one could only call mediocre, he's found his touch in pitching to contact with an Expected Batting Average well under the league norm in his past four campaigns. While he took a bit of a step back last year in that department, his microscopic walk rate helped keep his Expected ERA to 3.67 while he brought his barrel rate down a hair from 9% to 7.5%.
The thing to watch here with the veteran lefty is that he's been trending down in ground-ball rate, inducing an increasing number of fly balls. Generally speaking, this is fine; he's still allowing hard-hit balls around the league average. As we just discussed, his barrel rate wasn't out of control in 2024, which is why he was able to pitch to a sub-3.60 ERA for the second time in his career.
So far this year, Eflin's posted similar results, while his hard-hit and barrel rates have spiked because of more fly balls and even fewer strikeouts. Arizona was one of the top teams in baseball against fly-ball arms a year ago with a .783 OPS, but the fortunate news is that Chase Field grades out as the third-worst in Park Factor for home runs in the past three seasons.
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Gallen Yet to Figure It Out
Arizona will counter with Zac Gallen, one of the most puzzling pitchers I can remember writing about with consistency. The beginning of his career was so special, and even with slightly unsavory marks in xERA, he was a maestro when it came to inducing friendly contact. That, in chorus with a strikeout rate that was pushing 30%, had many excited for the future.
Well, we've seen in recent seasons why Gallen is just a cut below those first couple of tiers in the pitching ranks. He's never quite shaken off his issues with walks, where he sits worse than the league average in the past two years, and his strikeout rate has yet to reach the heights we saw in his first two seasons.
All that amounted to a strange couple of years from 2023-24, during which Gallen looked indecisive about whether he wanted to sell out for strikeouts or capitalize on his early returns to pitching to contact by throwing more strikes, thus limiting his walks.
This is what led to Gallen's 2024 season, during which he was merely a tick above average as he tried to blend a bit of everything into his game. He pitched to his lowest career strikeout rate, but still came home with a middling 8.7% walk rate and a .246 xBA. His xSLG continues to take a beating early this season, but early on, he's found a way to strike out many batters, which would be a nice thing to see going forward.
Orioles vs Diamondbacks Pick, Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Orioles are 10th in wRC+, but it's really a marvel as to how. They're not walking much, sitting near the bottom of the league at 7.6%. Their strikeout rate isn't great at 23.8%, and they sit just 15th in Isolated Power. It's been contact hitting that has brought them up in that category, and like many similar teams, that's meant they'll struggle against a contact-forward pitcher.
Yes, Gallen has racked up plenty of punchouts this year, but he remains a threat when it comes to rolling up ground balls. Baltimore currently sits 19th in OPS to ground-ballers in the early going, and with poor showings in the strikeout and walk categories, I don't have the utmost faith in this offense.
On the other hand, I don't think this should be a friendly matchup for Eflin against a Diamondbacks team that hits for power and crushed fly-ball arms a year ago. There are certainly more extreme cases than the veteran righty, but he's been prone to giving up rockets and will only be saved by Chase Field's unfriendly nature.
Still, power comes in different varieties — not just home runs — and I expect Arizona to hit Eflin relatively hard while Baltimore plays right into Gallen's hands. My gut admittedly says play the Over here, but I'll trust what the numbers say about the Orioles' offense and lean my prediction toward Arizona.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-122)
Moneyline
We've tracked big money coming in on Baltimore, which has taken on 9% more of the handle than the bets.
Run Line (Spread)
The Orioles are 3-2 to the run line after a loss this season, and last year went 23-9 as road underdogs to cover in 71.9% of games.
Over/Under
The sharp action is on the Under here despite most of the tickets coming in on the Over. Both of these teams have played incredibly well to the Over, going a combined 13-6-1.
Orioles vs Diamondbacks Betting Trends
Orioles vs Diamondbacks starts at 9:40 p.m. EDT on Monday, live from Chase Field. The game will be broadcast on ARID.
