The Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox play the opening installment of their three-game series on Monday night at Fenway Park. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET and the game will be broadcast on MLB.TV.
Orioles-Red Sox odds for Monday have the Red Sox as -122 moneyline favorites and Orioles as +102 underdogs, with an over/under of 9.5 (-108o / -112u). With that, let's get to my Orioles vs Red Sox prediction and moneyline pick for Monday, September 9.
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction
- Orioles-Red Sox pick: Orioles Moneyline (+102 | Play to -105)
My Orioles-Red Sox best bet is on the Orioles' moneyline, where I see value at +102. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Red Sox Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | +102 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | -122 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Cade Povich (BAL) | Stat | RHP Brayan Bello (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-7 | W-L | 12-7 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.6 |
| 5.76 / 4.14 | ERA /xERA | 4.75 / 4.38 |
| 5.04 / 5.34 | FIP / xFIP | 4.33 / 3.79 |
| 1.60 | WHIP | 1.38 |
| 7.7% | K-BB% | 13.3% |
| 37.8% | GB% | 51.9% |
| 86 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 97 | Location+ | 100 |
Tony Sartori's Orioles vs Red Sox Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Buy Low on Povich?
I want to buy low on Povich. He's certainly not shown the greatest stuff this season, but his underlying metrics are better than his 5.76 ERA would suggest.
The southpaw possesses a 4.14 xERA and ranks in the top half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Furthermore, he handled Boston well in their last meeting as Povich surrendered just two runs through 6.1 innings of work.
Even if we don't get a dominant pitching performance from Povich, he should receive a good amount of help. First, Baltimore's bullpen ranks in the top 12 of the league in both FIP and xFIP.
Second, the Orioles boast one of the best lineups in baseball. Entering this matchup, they rank in the top eight in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs.
This success at the dish is likely to continue against Bello, a pitcher whom this current Baltimore lineup boasts a .268 BA, .380 SLG and .334 wOBA against through 82 combined career plate appearances.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: A Fade-Worthy Mound
That success against Bello makes sense, considering that he is a below-average MLB pitcher. The right-hander possesses a 4.75 ERA and 1.38 WHIP through 26 starts this season.
His underlying metrics are equally poor as Bello ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate. Following Bello is a fade-worthy bullpen that ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
Boston's lineup is strong, which is why it is still favored in this matchup at home. With that said, it still trails Baltimore in runs scored per game, SLG, OPS and home runs.
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
While it is a small sample size, this current Red Sox lineup possesses a fade-worthy .222 BA, .222 SLG and .214 wOBA through 28 combined career plate appearances against Povich. Add that to the fact that Baltimore's lineup is superior regardless of matchup, then the road team is worth taking a shot on at plus-money.
The Povich versus Bello matchup is a wash, while the Orioles possess the stronger bullpen. Finally, we are catching a particularly good price on Baltimore's moneyline at +102 via DraftKings, a line that is two-to-seven cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
Pick: Orioles ML (+102 at DraftKings | Play to -105)
Moneyline
I'm betting the Orioles' moneyline in this game.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm going to pass on the run line. I like Baltimore at +1.5, but -208 is too steep of a price for my taste.
Over/Under
I'm also going to pass on the total. There are too many contradicting variables to make me feel strongly about either side, but if I had to choose, I would lean toward the over due to the strength of each lineup.
Orioles vs Red Sox Betting Trends
- 71% of the bets and 75% of the money are on the Red Sox on the moneyline.
- 62% of the bets and 57% of the money are on the over.
- 74% of the bets and 74% of the money are on the Red Sox to cover the run line.
Orioles Betting Trends
- Orioles are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Orioles are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Orioles are 39-30 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Orioles' last 5 games
Red Sox Betting Trends
- Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Red Sox' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 33 of Red Sox' 71 last games at home
Orioles-Red Sox Weather
