The Baltimore Orioles (82-63) and Boston Red Sox (73-71) play the second game of their three-game series on Tuesday night at Fenway Park. First pitch for this AL East contest is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET on TBS.
The Orioles enter Tuesday on a three-game losing streak and 1 1/2 games behind the New York Yankees (83-61) for first place in the AL East. The Red Sox, meanwhile, are alive in the AL wild-card hunt, trailing the Minnesota Twins (76-68) by three games.
Tuesday's starting pitching matchup features Kutter Crawford and Albert Suarez. Where the does the betting edge lie in this important rivalry game? Let's dive into my Orioles vs Red Sox prediction for Tuesday, September 10.
Orioles-Red Sox Prediction
- Orioles-Red Sox picks: Red Sox Moneyline (-108 | Play to -130)
My Orioles-Red Sox best bet and pick is on Red Sox moneyline, where I see value at -108. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Red Sox Odds
| Baltimore Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+120 | 9 -125o / +105u | +1.5 -180 |
| Boston Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-142 | 9 -125o / +105u | -1.5 +150 |
- Orioles-Red Sox Moneyline: O's +120 | Red Sox -142
- Orioles-Red Sox Total: Over/Under 9 (-125o / +105u)
- Orioles-Red Sox Spread: O's +1.5 (-180) | Red Sox -1.5 (+150)
Projected Starting Pitchers for Orioles-Red Sox on Tuesday
| RHP Albert Suarez (BAL) | Stat | RHP Kutter Crawford (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | W-L | 8-10 |
| 1.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.7 |
| 3.49/4.16 | ERA /xERA | 3.24/4.16 |
| 3.97/4.60 | FIP / xFIP | 3.35/3.57 |
| 1.31 | WHIP | 1.17 |
| 10.4% | K-BB% | 14.5% |
| 35.4% | GB% | 55.6% |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 99 | Location+ | 100 |
D.J. James’ Orioles vs Red Sox Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Suárez May Struggle
Suárez has a 3.49 ERA and a 4.16 xERA. His ground-ball rate ranks in the 20th percentile and he has an Average Exit Velocity around 89 mph with a slightly above average Hard-Hit Rate. He walks 7.7% of opposing hitters and strikes out 18.1%, so the Red Sox will likely be making contact. However, Suárez might have some issues because Red Sox haven't hit the ball on the ground much against righties lately.
The Orioles have a lower ground-ball rate, but also have a 97 wRC+, a 9.3% walk rate and a 22.5% strikeout rate. They have five active batters with an xwOBA above .320, so the bottom of the lineup has a bit of a drop-off.
In relief, Baltimore has a 3.80 xFIP, a 25.2% strikeout rate and an 8.9% walk rate. The Orioles have five arms under the 4.00 xFIP mark, so they have artillery after Suárez exits. That said, Suárez has struggled, at times, to make it past five innings.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Bats Can Carry Red Sox
Crawford has pitched to a 4.08 ERA and a 3.78 xERA. His xBA is in the 78th percentile and his chase rate (32.9%) is in the 88th percentile, which can help against a potent lineup, like the Orioles.
At the dish, Boston has been really close to Baltimore. The Red Sox have a 95 wRC+, a 7.2% walk rate and a 26.1% strikeout rate over the past month against right-handers. They have six bats with an xwOBA over .320, but the bottom of the lineup has had trouble. However, since Suárez allows fly balls, and the Red Sox have home-field advantage, they could be poised for a better day at the plate.
The Boston bullpen has a 4.18 xFIP, a 20.7% strikeout rate and a 7.4% walk rate. They Red Sox also have five relievers with an xFIP under 4.00.
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
Both starting pitchers are about equal in this matchup. The same could also be said about the lineups and bullpens. However, this game will be played at Fenway Park, so the Red Sox hold value at home. Look for the Red Sox to win a close one and come out victorious. Play them from -108 to -130.
Pick: Boston Red Sox -108 to -130
Moneyline
I'll back the Red Sox on the moneyline against the Orioles.
Run Line (Spread) — O's -1.5 (+138) | Sox +1.5 (-166)
I'm going to pass on playing the Orioles vs. Red Sox run line.
Over/Under — 9 (-110 / -110)
I'll also pass on the Orioles vs. Red Sox over/under.
Orioles at Red Sox Betting Trends
Orioles Betting Trends
- Orioles are 2-3 in their last 5 games
- Orioles are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Orioles are 39-30 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Orioles' last 5 games
Red Sox Betting Trends
- Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games
- Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Red Sox' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 33 of Red Sox' 72 last games at home
Orioles-Red Sox Weather for Tuesday
