If you want to watch a series with a ton of playoff implications, I got you covered: The Baltimore Orioles (83-64) and Detroit Tigers (75-52) meet at Comerica Park on Friday for their series opener.
Baltimore is trying to chase down the New York Yankees (85-62) for first place in the American League East, while the Tigers hope their fairytale season culminates with a wild-card appearance.
I preview this series opener below and offer my best Orioles vs Tigers predictions for Friday, September 13.
Orioles-Tigers Prediction
- Orioles-Tigers picks: Over 8 (-105 | Play to -115)
My Orioles-Tigers best bet is on over 8, where I see value at -105. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Tigers Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8 -105o / -115u | -130 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8 -105o / -115u | +110 |
- Orioles-Tigers Moneyline: Orioles -130 | Tigers +110
- Orioles-Tigers Over/Under: 8 total runs (-105o / -115u)
- Orioles-Tigers Spread: Orioles -1.5 (+130) | Tigers +1.5 (-155)
Probable Starting Pitchers for Orioles at Tigers
| RHP Zach Eflin (BAL) | Stat | RHP Beau Brieske (DET) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-8 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 2.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 3.65/3.39 | ERA /xERA | 4.07 /3.80 |
| 3.56/3.69 | FIP / xFIP | 3.30/4.24 |
| 1.14 | WHIP | 1.41 |
| 9.5% | K-BB% | 13.3% |
| 42.5% | GB% | 38.4% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 108 | Location+ | 101 |
Sean Paul’s Orioles vs Tigers Preview
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Is Madden the Real Deal?
While no starter has been announced yet, the pitcher that lines up for this outing is Ty Madden, whether he's the bulk guy or starter from the first inning, he'll likely be the main pitcher for the Tigers.
I was a bit surprised when the Tigers called up former the Tigers called up former first-round pick Madden, given he posted a 7.97 ERA in 18 starts with AAA Toledo. It was a total mess for him in the minors, but he boasts a strong 2.57 ERA and 2.89 FIP through three MLB outings. The one aspect of Madden’s game that has yet to translate to the major league level is his strikeout rate. In the minors, Madden posted an outstanding 11.8 K/9, but his strikeouts per nine have dwindled to 6.43 in 14 big league innings.
Madden continuing his success at the major league level would be a bit surprising. The 24-year-old righty, Madden has done nothing but impress in the bigs. But, his lack of strikeout stuff worries me at this level since that's the one way he generated consistent outs in the minutes. Likely, Madden won’t be listed as Detroit’s starter, as Beau Brieske pitched an inning as the starter in two of Madden’s outings. And he hasn’t pitched more than five innings in any of his three outings.
Detroit could use some extra length from Madden, considering the Tigers bullpen suffered a major malfunction in Thursday's disappointing loss to the Rockies. Bullpen meltdowns have been few and far between lately for Detroit — so it could be a minor blip on the radar. They have had a 1.94 ERA since August 15th, which puts them as the top bullpen in the sport. We'll see if Jason Foley is an option since he's pitching back-to-back games. If Foley is out of commission, that's a pretty key downgrade for the Tigers' surging bullpen.
Yesterday, the Tigers had no answers for Rockies righty, Ryan Feltner, scoring just two runs with four hits. That rough-hitting output was a rare off-performance for a lineup that scored 6+ runs in four of their prior five games. We'll see if Detroit's lineup rebounds against Baltimore on Friday.
Dating back to August 15th, the Tigers boast a 105 wRC+, ranking ninth in MLB in that span. Even with the recent offensive surge, Detroit isn't a perfect offense. Their swing-and-miss tendencies have gotten the best of them at times, posting an 8% K rate in that span, which is good for fourth worst in MLB.
I still believe in the Tigers lineup with the exciting, young lefty foursome of Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Colt Keith, and the surging Parker Meadows.
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Eflin a Model of Consistency
While the Tigers rely on a rookie starter, the Orioles hand the ball to wily veteran, Zach Eflin. The 30-year-old is enjoying a very consistent year, posting a 3.65 ERA with a strong 3.56 FIP and an elite 1.03 BB/9. Eflin ranks in the 78th percentile in xERA, but just 48th percentile in xBA. He won't blow hitters away with his stuff, but he's a mastermind at getting quick outs.
At least the Tigers can back Madden up with a stout bullpen. In contrast, the Orioles bullpen sits at 18th in ERA and 22nd in FIP in the same span. Both Craig Kimbrel and Seranthony Dominguez are good for blowing games, so it would be smart of Baltimore to lean in a different direction — likely Yennier Cano — with a late lead.
It’s not hard to figure out why the Orioles' offense went from one of the best in baseball to easily the most disappointing. The biggest issue is the Orioles bottom of the lineup. Once Baltimore gets beyond the Gunnar Henderson/Anthony Santander/Cedric Mullins/Colton Cowser grouping, the lineup features a bunch of underperforming bats.
Three of the main Orioles cogs during its hot start have disappeared –Ryan Mountcastle is hurt, while Adley Rutschman and Ryan O’Hearn have a wRC+ below 50 in the last month. All three of those hitters were dominant in April and May, and have been anything but dominant since.
Even still, it’s hard to envision the Orioles offense posting a 95 wRC+ for the rest of the year, as they have for over two months. The offense is simply too talented.
Orioles at Tigers Prediction, Betting Analysis
I have some real doubts about Madden, as I discussed at length earlier while Eflin is the type of pitcher who easily gets through five or six innings while holding the opposition to a couple of runs. That said, Over 7.5 feels like a strong play here. Both offenses have enough firepower to crack eight total runs — since September began, the Tigers and Orioles have each hit 9+ homers in 10 games.
Another thing that stands out to me is the total in yesterday's Tigers game compared to Friday's. Why is that, you ask? Well, the total in Thursday's Rockies/Tigers game nearly matches the total for this game. There's one note-worthy difference though — Tarik Skubal, the CY Young frontrunner in the American League pitched. Yeah, I can't quite get behind the total being the same in a Skubal start and a matchup with Madden and Eflin. The Tigers and Orioles are 3-2 to the over in their past five games.
Pick: Over 8 (-105 | Play to -115)
Moneyline
The Orioles enter as -150 favorites, despite losing four of their past five games. I'm not super surprised the Tigers are home underdogs since they aren't as good as the Orioles and the market seems to rate Madden fairly. I'd lean toward the Orioles here, but I wouldn't play it above -155.
Run Line (Spread)
You could grab +120 on the Orioles run line — if you believe in them on the road. The Tigers are -145 at +1.5, which is pretty poor value. Neither side holds great value here, so it's a stay-away spot from me.
Over/Under
The over is my favorite play for the game.
Orioles at Tigers Betting Trends
- 71% of moneyline bets are on the Orioles but 63% of the money is on the Tigers
- 91% of bets and 84% of the money is on the over
- 92% of bets and 93% of the money is on the Orioles to cover the run line
Orioles Betting Trends
- The Orioles have lost four of their past five games
- The Orioles have failed to cover the spread in four of five games
- The Orioles are 41-31 on the road this year
- The Orioles are 3-2 to the over in the past five games
Tigers Betting Trends
- The Tigers won four of their past five games
- The Tigers are 3-2 against the spread in their past five games
- The Tigers are 3-2 to the over in their past five games
- The Tigers are 42-46 as underdogs this year
