Sean Manaea has been sharp over the course of the last month, and the New York Mets are still battling for a National League Wild Card spot down the stretch. Manaea holds an above average strikeout rate, but he does not necessarily keep the ball on the ground.
His opponent will be the Baltimore Orioles, who can hammer the ball throughout the batting order with Cole Irvin at the helm. Irvin has some awful peripherals, so the Mets could be primed for a big offensive game, as well.
Both teams should provide plenty of offense on Wednesday, and the over is in play in my Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets prediction for Wednesday.
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | +110 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +154 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | -130 |
Orioles vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Cole Irvin (BAL) | Stat | Sean Manaea (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-5 | W-L | 9-5 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.9 |
| 4.85/5.77 | ERA /xERA | 3.46/4.13 |
| 4.48/4.70 | FIP / xFIP | 3.81/4.30 |
| 1.40 | WHIP | 1.21 |
| 10.8% | K-BB% | 14.2% |
| 38.0% | GB% | 36.8% |
| 79 | Stuff+ | 87 |
| 103 | Location+ | 97 |
Orioles vs Mets Preview
Orioles Betting Preview: Baltimore Positioned Well
Irvin has a 4.85 ERA and 5.77 xERA, so he is due for some negative regression. His Average Exit Velocity is above 90 MPH with a below average Hard-Hit Rate. He does not walk many hitters, but he does not miss many bats, which could become an issue against the Mets, who can hit lefties well. Irvin also struggles to keep the ball on the ground, so the Mets' power-hitters could be in store for a good day at the dish.
The O’s have hit lefties well in the last month. They have a 117 wRC+, 8.2% walk rate, and 25.8% strikeout rate. They also have nine active bats with a .310+ xwOBA and at least eight plate appearances against lefties. This lineup is more than Gunnar Henderson. They can hit throughout and have plenty of bats who can elevate the ball and give Manaea issues for the first time in over a month.
Baltimore’s bullpen has been a bit of a sore spot in the last month. They have a 4.02 xFIP, 24.4% strikeout rate, and 7.6% walk rate. They have four arms under a 4.00 xFIP, but Irvin has mostly functioned as an opener and has pitched a maximum of four innings in August. They will have trouble finding reliable options for the middle innings.
Mets Betting Preview: Areas of Concern Here
Manaea has a 3.46 ERA and 4.13 xERA on the year. His Average Exit Velocity is 89 MPH with a below average Hard-Hit Rate. He is above average with his strikeout rate (23.8%), but he is walking nearly 10% of batters. His groundball rate ranking in the 22nd percentile is more of a concern against the power-hitters in this stacked Baltimore lineup. His 3.18 ERA in August is not indicative of how this matchup may fare for him.
The Mets have a 101 wRC+, 7.3% walk rate, and 26.1% strikeout rate against lefties in the last month. They do only have three active bats eclipsing a .320 xwOBA off of southpaws, but Irvin and the relief staff have been weaker than average lately. The Mets may not be as stacked throughout the lineup, but Pete Alonso and company have enough to get by Irvin and the weaker portion of the Orioles' bullpen.
The Mets have a 3.88 xFIP in relief in the last month with a 28.3% strikeout rate and 11.8% walk rate. They have five relievers under a 4.00 xFIP, but seeing as both the relief staff and Manaea issue walks consistently, the Orioles could have more baserunners, and thus, more opportunities to push across runs without even having to put the ball in play.
Orioles vs Mets Prediction & Pick
Manaea is the better starter, but neither starter is spectacular. Both bullpens have a few arms who can be reliable, but walks could be an issue for Manaea and the Mets. The Orioles just may not have enough artillery in relief to back up a sour Irvin start.
Fade the pitching, and bet the over in this one from 8.5 to 9.
