The Baltimore Orioles (88-70) and New York Yankees (92-66) finish their three-game series on Thursday night at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET on Mid-Atlantic Sports Network and YES Network. So, let's get to my Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees prediction. Of course, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Yankees Predictions
- Orioles vs Yankees picks: First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-140 | Play to U4 -115 )
My Orioles vs Yankees best bet for Thursday is on First Five Innings Under 4.5 Runs, where I see value at -140.
Orioles vs Yankees Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+134 | 8 -108/-112 | +1.5 -162 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-159 | 8 -108/-112 | -1.5 +136 |
Orioles vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Corbin Burnes (BAL) | Stat | RHP Gerrit Cole (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 15-8 | W-L | 7-5 |
| 3.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.6 |
| 2.95 / 3.55 | ERA /xERA | 3.67 / 3.62 |
| 3.56 / 3.62 | FIP / xFIP | 3.81 / 4.01 |
| 1.11 | WHIP | 1.18 |
| 16.3% | K-BB% | 18.0% |
| 47.9% | GB% | 38.1% |
| 119 | Stuff+ | 111 |
| 103 | Location+ | 101 |
Justin Perri’s Orioles vs Yankees Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Bullpen in Tough Spot
The Orioles are still alive for a chance to win the AL East title; they just need to win four straight games and the Yankees need to lose four straight games. Crazier things have happened, right?
Well, not to cut the party short, but the Pirates sweeping the Yankees while their magic number sits at one for the entire weekend seems improbable. Also, the Orioles still have to win tonight, and after taking the first two games of the series, that might be a challenge.
Baltimore hands the ball to Corbin Burnes, who was the lone bright spot in the Orioles' two series losses to the Tigers. The O's lost 4 of 6 games to surging Detroit, but Burnes put together back-to-back shutout starts where he combined for 15 strikeouts in 14 innings with just 5 hits allowed. This is a much-needed turnaround for the ace who had allowed a total of 22 runs (16 earned) across three starts to the Dodgers, Astros and Red Sox to end the month of August.
So what's changed? Burnes has retooled his signature cutter and added more drop, which allows for him to properly build at-bats towards whiffs for his peripheral curveball/changeup/slider mix. He throws his cutter almost 50% of the time, so when he wasn't getting the same bite on the pitch in August, things went poorly. I think he's back, though, as the 30% K-rates he achieved in his last two starts were the highest since May.
That said, the Orioles may still have a bit of a tough task when Burnes exits, especially if he can't get to six innings against the Yankees tonight. The Baltimore bullpen is taxed. Jacob Webb, Keegan Akin, Matt Bowman and Gregory Soto have all pitched in back-to-back nights, plus Yennier Cano and Cionel Perez have pitched in three of the last five. Last night, the Yankees were able to put together a late surge, and the relief pitching is likely going to be the biggest obstacle for a Baltimore win today.
The Orioles have won eight out of 12 games against the Yankees this season. They are 44-33 on the road and 19-18 when priced as an underdog. There is likely value behind Burnes, but it might be best to isolate his performance and keep the variability of the bullpen out of the equation.
New York Yankees Betting Preview: What's Up With Cole?
The New York Yankees have lost this series to the Baltimore Orioles. They have lost the season series to them as well. In fact, they've even allowed the Guardians to pull within half a game back for the best record thanks to Tuesday's and Wednesday's losses.
But it all matters not, for their magic number to win the American League East is just one, and tonight their ace is on the mound to help usher in another champagne celebration in the Bronx.
Gerrit Cole is having a peculiar season. He is largely doing well, but the season line is being marred by the funniest of issues: He can not perform well against the Yankees most bitter rivals. Cole has surrendered 36 earned runs in 88.1 innings this season. Of the 36 runs, 11 have come from two starts against the Red Sox, and 12 have come from two starts against the Mets. Thats 23 of 36 runs, almost two-thirds of the scoring against Cole, from just four of his 16 starts.
In the other 12 starts, he has just one outing in the entire season where he allowed more than two runs, and that was when he allowed three to the Nationals. So, if there's any perception of Cole underperforming this year, it is from the four bad starts and not the 12 stellar ones. He's been largely trustworthy, but the bad starts have been more blow-ups than just sub-par.
The Yankees offense is led by Aaron Judge, who is second to only Shohei Ohtani by wRC+ in the last two weeks. Beyond Judge, Jasson Dominguez and Gleyber Torres are among the hotter hitters in the league at the moment, and then there's Juan Soto to top it all off. This is a formidable lineup that has lost back-to-back games, put up some late runs yesterday and might be in a perfect spot to clinch the East in a Thursday home spot behind their Cy Young winner.
The Yankees have been average at home this year — just 42-35 at Yankee Stadium — but are 74-56 overall when favored to win.
Orioles vs Yankees Prediction
The market has been moving towards the Yankees on this game since the open at -130 on the moneyline, and the price almost touched -150 overnight. There has been some retracing back to around -145, where it currently sits, but the feeling is that the Yankees will go out there and get it done behind Gerritt Cole in what will be a battle of titans in the American League East.
My pick is on the starting pitchers to do their jobs and limit runs early in this game with a bet on the F5 U4.5. I think Cole has been in great form. A few bad starts for a guy who didn't have a spring training this year and clearly gets in his head a bit too much against certain teams is not enough to keep me away. As for Burnes, he's figured something out with his cutter that is opening the door to more strikes, and New York's lineup is prone to inning-ending strikeout issues.
Pick: F5 U4.5 -140 (Play to U4 -115 | DraftKings)
Moneyline
If the Yankees win tonight, they win the American League East, and that is a large factor in this game. The Orioles have largely owned the Yankees this season, winning 8 of the 12 games these teams have played this season. The Orioles have won the first two games of this series and three straight against their New York foes.
The Yankees are 2-3 in Cole's last five starts, while the Orioles are 3-2 in Corbin Burnes' last five. I agree with the market pricing and movement and lean toward New York to get it done at home in the final game of the series. It might be a bit of a trope, but it is tough to beat a baseball team four straight times. I think the Yankees pick up a win and avoid a crushing home series sweep.
Run Line (Spread)
The Run Line is how I would look to play whichever side you like in tonight's contest. The Yankees looked like they were having success late in Tuesday's game, but it was too late to catch the nine runs the Orioles had scored. So if they are to win, I could see them getting out to a large lead, but I could also see that same issue leading to a one-run walk-off win scenario late in the game if the Yankees are trailing.
My lean would be towards the Yankees, as I think they're more likely to be winning early and adding on to a lead rather than coming back from a deficit, the latter of which would be an Orioles +1.5 scenario. Plus, in general, I don't really like buying runs from the book.
Over/Under
My play is on the total tonight, I'm going with the F5 U4.5 with the -140 juice. It's worth the squeeze for how well these pitchers are throwing, and you want the chance to win on a 2-2 or 3-1 contest out of respect for the lineups. Burnes' cutter is looking the best it has all season, and Cole has been trustworthy against everyone that isn't the Red Sox or Mets.
Orioles vs Yankees Betting Trends
Orioles Betting Trends
- The Orioles are 43-34 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Orioles' last 5 games
Yankees Betting Trends
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Yankees' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 42 of Yankees' 77 last games at home
Orioles vs Yankees Weather
