The Baltimore Orioles saw whatever shot at a bye in the playoffs they had slip away in recent weeks. They will almost certainly be the four-seed in the American League, while the New York Yankees could be the top seed.
On Tuesday, the serviceable Dean Kremer will start for the O’s. He can limit hard contact, but he does struggle with issuing walks, at times. Marcus Stroman will throw for the home Yankees — he has an elite ground-ball rate but also struggles with command and missing bats.
Since these pitchers are nearly neck-and-neck, and Baltimore can hold strong in relief and at the plate, the Orioles have value. Read more to find out where in my Orioles vs Yankees prediction for Tuesday, September 24.
Orioles vs Yankees Predictions
- Orioles-Yankees picks: Orioles Moneyline (+142 | Play to +105)
My Orioles vs Yankees best bet is on Orioles Moneyline, where I see value at +142. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Yankees Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -154 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +142 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +128 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -168 |
Orioles vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| Dean Kremer RHP | Stat | Marcus Stroman RHP |
|---|---|---|
| 7-10 | W-L | 10-8 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 4.19/4.44 | ERA /xERA | 4.04/4.85 |
| 4.27/4.31 | FIP / xFIP | 4.67/4.52 |
| 1.25 | WHIP | 1.43 |
| 13.3% | K-BB% | 7.9% |
| 41.6% | GB% | 48.7% |
| 87 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 100 | Location+ | 96 |
D.J. James’ Orioles vs Yankees Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Deep Lineup Can Cause Trouble
Along with his 4.19 ERA and 4.44 xERA, Kremer's Average Exit Velocity is below 88 MPH with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 77th percentile. His ground-ball rate is also above average, despite having a 9.2% walk rate and only 22.5% strikeout rate. All that said, he's made improvements in all of these metrics.
The Orioles have a 100 wRC+, 9.5% walk rate, and 24.1% strikeout rate against righties in the last month. However, they have nine active bats above a .300 xwOBA with Jordan Westburg back in the lineup and have six above .320. This lineup is deep and should make contact against Stroman, which has been a vice of his this year.
In relief, the O’s carry a 3.56 xFIP, 8.8% walk rate and 26.4% strikeout rate in the last month. They have five options under a 4.00 xFIP, so even if Kremer may not throw strikes, they have arms to keep them in the game.
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Can Stroman Go More than Four?
As mentioned before, Stroman has a great ground-ball rate, but his Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate are below average. His walk rate is above 9% with a strikeout rate under 18%, so the Orioles should be able to work the count and keep the ball in play. Stroman has only gone more than four innings once in September, so watch his pitch count.
New York has a 102 wRC+, 9.1% walk rate and 24% strikeout rate at the dish in the last month against righties. They also have nine bats above a .300 xwOBA, and they have seven above .320. They have the depth against Kremer, which is why this starting pitching matchup is pretty much a wash.
Out of the bullpen, the Yankees have been stellar, and they deserve the credit. They have a 3.38 xFIP in the last month with an 8.8% walk rate and 27.7% strikeout rate. They have six relievers under a 4.00 xFIP, so they likely have a bit more to default to, after a poor outing by Stroman.
On the other hand, he could be exiting the game even earlier than Kremer. This, in turn, provides a boost to the Orioles relief staff, and therefore allows them to negate a bullpen edge the Yankees may otherwise carry.
Orioles vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
Bet the Orioles to steal this one, even though this series may be negligible at this stage of the regular season. Both starters are comparable, and Stroman likely will not pitch many innings. The Baltimore lineup has the weapons to keep them even with the New York heavy-hitters. Both relief staffs are relatively even, as well. Bet the Orioles on the road from +142 to +105. They have plenty of value against Stroman and the Yankees.
Pick: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline +142 to +105
Moneyline
+142 (Yes)
Run Line (Spread)
+1.5 (Pass)
Over/Under
8.5 (Pass)
Orioles vs Yankees Betting Trends
Orioles Betting Trends
Orioles are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Orioles are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Orioles are 41-34 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of the Orioles last 5 games
Yankees Betting Trends
Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of the Yankees last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 41 of the Yankees 75 last games at home
