The Baltimore Orioles remain tied atop the American League East standings with the New York Yankees after both teams were blown out on Thursday. The O's head from Toronto to St. Petersburg to face the Tampa Bay Rays to start a three-game series at Tropicana Field on Friday night.
The Rays are back home after avoiding a sweep in St. Louis to improve to 58-56, but Tampa Bay remains five games behind Kansas City for the final Wild Card spot in the American League.
Let's get to my Orioles vs Rays prediction and pick — plus the latest MLB odds — for Friday.
Orioles vs Rays Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-140 | 8 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +122 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+118 | 8 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -145 |
Projected Starting Pitchers for Orioles-Rays
| RHP Zach Eflin (BAL) | Stat | RHP Zack Littell (TB) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-7 | W-L | 5-7 |
| 2.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
| 4.05/3.39 | ERA /xERA | 4.06/4.34 |
| 3.70/3.81 | FIP / xFIP | 4.02/4.02 |
| 1.18 | WHIP | 1.33 |
| 16.2% | K-BB% | 16.7% |
| 42.9% | GB% | 34.0% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 82 |
| 108 | Location+ | 104 |
Kevin Rogers' Orioles vs Rays Betting Preview
Orioles Betting Preview: Eflin Faces Former Team
The Orioles and Yankees keep going back and forth atop the AL East as both teams will be playing October baseball, it's just a matter of who will be the division champions.
Baltimore is winless in the last three road series, while posting a 4-6 record in those 10 games away from Camden Yards.
The Orioles dropped two of three in Toronto, capped off by Thursday's 7-6 setback as Baltimore's 9th-inning rally fell short with four late runs.
The over is 15-2 in Baltimore's last 17 games, while the over sits at 13-2 in its last past 15 road contests.
Zach Eflin faces the team that dealt him to Baltimore at the trade deadline in late July for the first time. The Rays lost Eflin's final three starts before the trade, but he has seen success with the O's by going 2-0 in his first two outings.
Eflin allowed 10 hits in six innings against Toronto in his Orioles' debut but was aided by an early 7-0 lead as Baltimore won 11-5 as a -155 favorite.
The Orioles fell in a 2-0 hole at Cleveland in his last outing, but Baltimore rallied for a 7-4 victory as Eflin pitched into the 7th inning and yielded only five hits.
Although Eflin is the visiting pitcher on Friday, he put up solid numbers at Tropicana Field this season as a member of the Rays. After giving up six runs to Toronto in the season opener, Eflin has allowed a total of six runs in his final five starts at the Trop.
Baltimore has owned Tampa Bay this season by capturing six of seven matchups, including a four-game sweep in St. Pete back in June.
Rays Betting Preview: Tampa Tough at Home
The Rays salvaged the final contest of their three-game set in St. Louis by scoring four late runs in a 6-4 triumph to close their road swing at 3-3.
Tampa Bay still has work to do to jump several teams in the American League as the Rays are in jeopardy of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2018.
The only way to counter one Zach is with another Zack as the Rays send out Zack Littell to the mound, who seeks his third consecutive victory.
Littell was lit up in the Bronx by the Yankees on July 22 for five runs and three homers, but the right-hander has rebounded his last two starts by allowing a total of one run in wins over the Reds and Astros.
Littell has pitched into the 6th inning in 14 starts this season as Tampa Bay can rely on him to eat up innings. However, Tampa Bay has lost four of his past six home starts, although Littell didn't allow a run in seven innings against Cincinnati in his last outing at Tropicana Field.
Since getting swept by Baltimore two months ago, the Rays have posted a strong 6-1 record in their last seven home series openers with the lone loss coming to the Reds in 10 innings.
Tampa Bay is in the midst of a 13-7 run in the past 20 home games. while going 6-0-1 in those seven series as the lone push came against the Marlins in a short two-game set.
Orioles vs Rays Prediction, Betting Analysis: Tampa Bay Moneyline
Tampa Bay returns home with some momentum tonight after rallying past St. Louis and it's hard to ignore the Rays' success at home recently. Also, the Rays won't likely forget about that four-game sweep by the Orioles in June, while trying to beat their former teammate Eflin in his return to the Trop.
Moneyline
The Orioles are 2-8 in their last 10 road games when Corbin Burnes or Grayson Rodriguez does not start, while the pitching staff has allowed four runs or more in six of the past seven contests.
Run Line (Spread)
Nine of Baltimore's last 10 wins have come by two runs or more, but the O's are 7-11 on the run-line in the last 18 games. On the flip side, the Rays are rolling on a 10-2 run on the run-line, so Tampa Bay is worth a strong look here at -150, although all six losses to the O's have come by two or more runs.
Over/Under
Baltimore is on a great over run (15-2) thanks to the pitching woes, while its offense still has the potential to light things up. Tampa Bay was riding a 5-0 game Under streak prior to last night's 6-4 victory, as the Rays are 6-2 to the under in the past eight home contests. All things considered with opposing streaks, let's lay off the total in this one.
