The Baltimore Orioles will wrap up a three game series on the road tonight as they take on the Toronto Blue Jays. These two AL East foes split the first two games of the series, leaving Thursday night’s contest as the rubber match.
Baltimore is currently tied for the AL East lead with the Yankees and hold a 4.5 game lead in the wild card race. The Blue Jays have fallen mostly out of contention, sitting 15.5 games out of the division and 11 games out of a wild card spot.
The Orioles are slight favorites to win at -115 and the game has a total of over/under of 9 (-115/-105) as it’s projected to be on the higher scoring end. Let’s dive into my Orioles vs. Blue Jays prediction for Thursday night.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-116 | 9 -104 / -118 | -1.5 +132 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-102 | 9 -104 / -118 | +1.5 -160 |
Orioles vs. Blue Jays Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Dean Kremer (BAL) | Stat | RHP Kevin Gausman (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-8 | W-L | 9-8 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 4.39 / 5.02 | ERA /xERA | 4.56 / 5.09 |
| 4.81 / 4.43 | FIP / xFIP | 4.05 / 4.04 |
| 1.25 | WHIP | 1.30 |
| 12.8% | K-BB% | 15.6% |
| 40.6% | GB% | 37.0% |
| 88 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 101 | Location+ | 104 |
Cody Goggin's Orioles vs. Blue Jays Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Offense Should Get Kremer Over the Hump
Dean Kremer has started 15 games for Baltimore this season, posting a 4.39 ERA, 5.02 xERA, and a 4.36 SIERA. Kremer has been a bit below average by most metrics, ranking in the 28th percentile in whiff rate, 45th percentile in strikeout rate, and 34th percentile in walk rate.
He has also struggled with allowing hard contact, ranking in the 10th percentile in barrel rate, 55th percentile in hard hit rate, and 48th percentile in average exit velocity. This has not been added by Kremer’s 40.9% ground ball rate, which ranks in the 41st percentile.
Kremer will have one of the best offenses in the league behind him, however. The Orioles rank 1st in wRC+, 1st in wOBA, 1st in SLG, and 1st in ISO. Their main flaw has been their lack of walks (20th), but that has been more than offset by their power numbers.
The Orioles rank first in hard hit rate, third in barrel rate, and second in average exit velocity. They also hit the third-lowest rate of ground balls in the league as they are able to elevate these hard hit balls, leading to these extraordinary power numbers they have displayed.
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview: Gausman Trending Downward
Kevin Gausman has had some good seasons in the past, but appears to have taken a meaningful step back in 2024. The 33-year old has a 4.56 ERA and 5.09 xERA through 124.1 IP this season.
Gausman’s strikeout rate this season ranks in just the 51st percentile, which is the lowest he has ranked since 2018, before his breakout. His whiff rate is the lowest it has ever been as well, ranking in the 38th percentile.
This has coincided with Gausman becoming much more hittable, as he ranks in the fourth percentile in barrel rate, 14th percentile in hard hit rate, and 11th percentile in average exit velocity. His ground ball rate of 37% is also the lowest it has ever been in his career.
Most of these struggles can be attributed to Gausman’s fall off in his stuff. He has a Stuff+ of just 94 this year while he had been over 100 for each of the last four seasons. His fastball velocity is at his lowest since 2018 as well. But it’s not just the fastball that has fallen off in Stuff+; both Gausman’s splitter and slider have taken dramatic dips as well.
Toronto has been slightly below average this season, ranking 17th in the league with a wRC+ of 98. They are 18th in wOBA, 20th in SLG, 14th in OBP, and 26th in ISO. They do walk at the 8th-highest rate and strike out at the 6th-lowest rate, displaying good plate discipline.
The Blue Jays have lacked this season when it comes to batted ball metrics. They are 26th in hard hit rate, 25th in barrel rate, and 26th in exit velocity. They are 25th in ground ball rate and 5th in line drive rate, showing they just often hit weak line drives.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays Prediction, Betting Analysis: First Five Innings Moneyline Bet
This first five innings moneyline is just off in my opinion. Dean Kremer is a below average player, but he’s also facing an offense that is below average and doesn’t hit the ball extremely hard. I don’t think Kremer has a great start, but it’s not a terribly difficult matchup on this side.
Gausman, on the other hand, will be facing an uphill battle. Not only has his stuff fallen off this season but he’s going against one of the best offenses in the league. The Orioles are the type of offense that will be able to take advantage of Gausman’s flaws and make quality contact against the veteran.
The F5 moneyline has the Blue Jays as slight favorites, which I believe to be largely incorrect. I think the Orioles are about a half-run better tonight over the first five innings, so I’ll take the O’s ML at -110.
Moneyline
Orioles hitters are slugging .440 versus relief pitchers this season, which is best in MLB. Blue Jays relief pitchers have allowed a SLG of .443 this season, which is the worst in MLB.
As is the case with the F5, I like the Orioles for the full game moneyline as well. Toronto ranks 29th in bullpen ERA and xFIP this season while the Orioles are in the middle of the pack. Baltimore is the better team overall and should be a heavier favorite in this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
This season the Blue Jays are 24-32 ATS at home compared to 32-26 on the road. Baltimore is 31-25 on the road this season as they are 62-53 ATS this season.
Taking the Orioles on the run line could also be a winning strategy tonight. At +142 to win by 1.5 runs or more, I believe this also to be a good value as I would be on the Orioles in every way possible tonight. The bet you take to play this would just be a matter of personal strategy and risk tolerance.
Over/Under
The Orioles have scored 5.1 runs per game this season (3rd), while the Blue Jays have allowed 4.9 runs per game this year (4th-highest). The over this season is 32-23-1 in Toronto home games and 34-18-4 in Baltimore road games. I would lean towards the over in this matchup.
I have already mentioned that I believe Gausman will have a tough matchup, but I also don’t fully trust Dean Kremer. He has struggled for much of the year and this Toronto offense still does have the ability to do some damage against him.
This isn’t a strong conviction for me, but if you were set on playing the total on this game, I believe the over would be a better bet.
