The Toronto Blue Jays host the Baltimore Orioles on Friday, March 28. First pitch for the second game of this AL East series from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
Orioles vs Blue Jays odds (via Caesars Sportsbook) have the Blue Jays as -125 moneyline favorites and the Orioles as +105 underdogs. The over/under is set at 8.5 runs (-115o / -105u). The Orioles are -190 to cover the run line (+1.5) and the Blue Jays are +158 to cover the spread (-1.5).
Find my MLB betting preview and Orioles vs Blue Jays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, public betting trends, starting lineups, injury reports and more.
Orioles vs Blue Jays Prediction
- Orioles vs Blue Jays Picks: Over 8.5 (-108) | Play to -120
My Orioles vs Blue Jays best bet is Over 8.5 runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Blue Jays Odds, Spread, Prediction
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +105 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -125 |
- Orioles vs Blue Jays Moneyline: Orioles +105, Blue Jays -125
- Orioles vs Blue Jays Over/Under: 8.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Orioles vs Blue Jays Run Line: Orioles +1.5 (-190), Blue Jays -1.5 (+158)
- Orioles vs Blue Jays Best Bet: Over 8.5
Orioles vs Blue Jays Probable Pitchers
Stats from 2024 season
| RHP Charlie Morton (BAL) | Stat | RHP Kevin Gausman (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-10 | W-L | 14-11 |
| 4.19 | ERA | 3.83 |
| 1.32 | WHIP | 1.22 |
| 9.1 | K/9 | 8.1 |
| 2.57 | K/BB | 2.89 |
Orioles vs Blue Jays Preview, Prediction, Starting Lineups
Orioles Preview
Orioles Starting Lineup
- LF Colton Cowser
- C Adley Rutschman
- 3B Jordan Westburg
- DH Ryan O'Hearn
- RF Tyler O'Neill
- CF Cedric Mullins
- 1B Ryan Mountcastle
- 2B Jackson Holliday
- SS Jorge Mateo
- Starting pitcher: Charlie Morton
It's a marvel that Charlie Morton, now 41, is still pitching. It's even more improbable that an Orioles team that is serious about contending and starved for pitching would rely so heavily upon a man this age to deliver quality innings.
With all that said, Morton is coming off a solid spring, where he allowed just three runs over eight innings across four appearances with six strikeouts, a positive sign when you consider he's always pitched well in Spring Training. The bad news is that in the larger sample of the past two years, he's been a considerably worse pitcher as his Expected Batting Average sits right around the league average and his Expected Slugging has taken a sizable step up to the middle of the league.
Morton's going to draw a Blue Jays team that is pretty similar in construction to the one we saw last season, which ranked 12th in OPS versus ground-ball pitchers. However, they struggled mightily to do much with the ball in play on Opening Day, striking out just three times, but mustering up just four hits on the afternoon.
Blue Jays Preview
Blue Jays Starting Lineup
- SS Bo Bichette
- 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- DH Anthony Santander
- 2B Andrés Giménez
- C Alejandro Kirk
- RF George Springer
- 3B Will Wagner
- CF Nathan Lukes
- LF Alan Roden
- Starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman
Toronto will counter with Gausman, who's seen a similar drop in production as he hits his mid-thirties. He put up a 4.74 Expected ERA last season thanks to a sharp drop in strikeout rate, a .257 xBA and a .449 xSLG, which were his worst since 2019.
Gausman's 2022 season, when he finally made massive gains in the walk department, seems a distant memory. Even if he's still sitting around the middle of the league in that category, his lack of strikeouts has made it difficult to record outs as that he's giving up plenty of hard-hit balls, many of which are in the air.
I try not to read too far into spring stats, but it's certainly not the greatest thing in the world that he put up a 7.71 ERA over seven innings after such a tumultuous campaign.
Orioles vs Blue Jays Prediction, Over/Under Analysis
I'm just not a believer in Morton at this age, especially after such a rocky season. Walks have continued to pile up for the right-hander as he's struggled in that category three years running now, and with his strikeout totals finally moving to a roughly league-average spot, his results will rely on a solid batted-ball profile.
I'm a bit worried for Morton, given how the Blue Jays have gotten the ball back into play. They were one of the 10 best teams in the league at limiting strikeouts in the second half of 2024 and struck out just three times on Thursday. For a pitcher who's still nibbling and hunting strikeouts, it will make this outing a nerve-wracking one. Yes, Toronto does struggle to impact the baseball — and Baltimore's defense is solid — but the chances of him making it out unscathed are rather slim.
On the flip side, this is a nightmarish matchup for Gausman against his former team.
Baltimore can drive the ball and remains rather disciplined at the plate, but against a pitcher who's going to yield plenty of hard-hit balls through the air and finished with a gaudy .449 xSLG a season ago, things are looking dicey.
I think Toronto should have a better showing at the dish on Friday. While it may not totally make up for Gausman's shortcomings, it should be enough to get us over the total.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-108) | Play to -120
Moneyline
There's been little movement in this market, with the line moving roughly 10 cents toward the Blue Jays. However, with sharp money hitting the Orioles and decline hitting Gausman even harder, I'm a fan of grabbing Baltimore at this friendly price as a road underdog.
Run Line (Spread)
Baltimore covered the run line in 71.9% of its games as a road underdog last season, going 23-9. It's hard to lay down all this juice, yet there's 9% more money on the Orioles to cover than bets placed.
Over/Under
The line has remained at 8.5 runs with some movement toward nine — a number we may eventually see before the first pitch. Having said that, we have tracked some sharp money hitting the Under.
Orioles vs Blue Jays Betting Trends
Orioles vs Blue Jays Injuries
Orioles Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| SS Gunnar Henderson | Right intercostal strain (10-day IL) |
| RHP Grayson Rodriguez | Right elbow (15-day IL) |
Blue Jays Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| OF Daulton Varsho | Right rotator cuff (10-day IL) |
| RHP Erik Swanson | Nerve entrapment (15-day IL) |
| RHP Ryan Burr | Right shoulder (15-day IL) |
| RHP Alex Manoah | Right UCL surgery (60-day IL) |
