The Washington Nationals host the Baltimore Orioles on on April 23, 2025. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MASN2.
On Wednesday, the Orioles send Tomoyuki Sugano to the bump, and the Nats will counter him with Trevor Williams. Oddsmakers have the Nationals as short underdogs, and the total is 9.5.
Find my MLB betting preview and Orioles vs Nationals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Orioles vs Nationals Prediction
- Orioles vs Nationals picks: Nationals ML +120 (Play to PK)
My Orioles vs Nationals best bet is on Nationals moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Nationals Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 9.5 -102 / -118 | -140 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 9.5 -102 / -118 | +118 |
Orioles vs Nationals Projected Starting Pitchers
| Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) | Stat | Trevor Williams (WSH) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 1-2 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 3.43 / 6.42 | ERA /xERA | 5.95 / 3.62 |
| 5.60 / 4.98 | FIP / xFIP | 4.30 / 4.08 |
| 1.29 | WHIP | 1.63 |
| 3.4 | K-BB% | 11.2 |
| 39.7 | GB% | 35.9 |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 104 | Location+ | 103 |
Feltman’s Orioles vs Nationals Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Pitching Concerns Pose Problem
Last night's performance from the Orioles' offense prompted me to dig into their numbers against left-handed pitching. I was astonished that the O's are batting .165 against southpaws, compared to a much more respectable .241 against right-handers.
It's a small sample size thus far, but that's something to monitor moving forward.
The offense will sigh in relief that Williams is pitching for the Nats, but their numbers against him are surprisingly poor.
The O's are batting .179 against Williams over 28 at-bats. Half of those at-bats are from Tyler O'Neil, who's 3-for-14 against him with one home run.
Williams has been crushed by left-handers thus far, allowing a .455 opposing batting average. However, he's stifled right-handers, who are batting a measly .167 against him.
Regardless, I expect a much better offensive output from the O's on Wednesday. They must score a decent amount of runs, especially since Sugano is on the mound.
There's very little data on Sugano thus far, but having 21 innings pitched with only eight strikeouts is concerning. He has a 3.43 ERA, but his xERA is 6.42.
Sugano has serious regression looming, especially since he hasn't missed many bats. Sugano does a good job of limiting free passes, but a 17% whiff rate is begging for trouble moving forward.
His xBA against is .319, so the Nats' offense is set up for another big day at the office. I have legitimate concerns about Sugano, so much so that I can't back the Orioles here in any form or fashion.
Washington Nationals Betting Preview: Count on Offensive Success
The Nats' young talent is starting to come to life, especially outfielder Dylan Crews. James Wood is already a blossoming superstar, and when CJ Abrams returns from the IL, that will give them a dynamic trio for years to come.
For Wednesday's game, I love the matchup for their offense.
As a team, the Nats are batting .270 at home thus far and are a slightly better group against right-handed pitching.
I alluded to Sugano's looming regression above, so the Nats should be able to have offensive success once again.
My question on the Nats side is Williams, who has bizarre metrics thus far.
Williams has a 1.63 WHIP, but he's done a solid job limiting free passes and allowing hard contact. His whiff, chase and strikeout rates are still below average, and his average velocity is amongst the league's worst.
He's struggled mightily against left-handed bats but held his own against right-handers. There's a massive drop-off in batting average against righties, so I expect ample left-handers in the O's lineup on Wednesday.
Williams will need to avoid early trouble, but his offense should provide plenty of run support in case he has a mediocre outing.
Orioles vs Nationals Prediction, Betting Analysis
I love the Nationals at plus-money on Wednesday. There's no reason why Sugano should be a favorite on the road against an up-and-coming offense.
Williams' splits against left-handers concern me, but the offensive matchup is premium enough to overcome that. Sugano has been dancing with the devil in his first few appearances, and regression should kick in Wednesday
I like how the Nats are swinging the bats lately, especially with Crews finally contributing nightly. This is a pure fade of Sugano and the Orioles' bullpen, and I'll happily ride with the Nationals on Wednesday at a reasonable price.
Pick: Nationals ML +120 (Play to PK)
Moneyline
I'm taking the Nationals on the moneyline down to a pick'em.
Run Line (Spread)
I prefer the moneyline to the spread.
Over/Under
I don't have a play on the total.
